FROM MMH

Notre Dame vs. Villanova: New Rosters, New Questions and a Season Opener Worth Watching

2026-10-31

College basketball opens in Rome with two familiar programs trying to establish new identities.

Notre Dame and Villanova meet Sunday, November 1, at 9:30 a.m. ET on FOX inside Palazzo dello Sport. The setting gives the Eternal City Tip-Off its distinction, but the basketball offers its own intrigue: two rebuilt rosters, experienced transfers stepping into important roles and an immediate test of how quickly offseason plans can become functional teams.

Villanova has added size, shooting and several ways to construct its lineup. Notre Dame has pursued an experienced point guard, a productive interior scorer and a more balanced offensive approach.

Those changes make this more than a comparison of last season's records. The central question is which team's new pieces make the players around them better—and which coach can expose the connections that have not yet formed.

The tactical discussion below is MMH's matchup analysis. It describes actions and counters suited to these personnel, rather than claiming either team has announced its game plan.

Notre Dame's rebuild starts with how it creates offense

The Irish enter the season following the departures of Markus Burton and Jalen Haralson. Their replacement plan includes Gonzaga transfer Braeden Smith, Winthrop transfer Logan Duncomb and Penn transfer Ethan Roberts. Returning forward Brady Koehler and guard Braeden Shrewsberry give that group some continuity.

The potential change is structural.

A team built around individual shot creation can survive possessions that stall because its best scorer can manufacture something late. A more balanced team needs earlier decisions: a timely screen, a clean entry pass, a purposeful cut and an immediate response when a defender helps.

That places considerable responsibility on Smith. His job extends beyond delivering assists. He needs to recognize where Villanova is vulnerable before the Irish spend most of the shot clock finding out.

Braeden Smith: Making the first advantage count

Notre Dame's staff identified ball security and point-guard decision-making as offseason priorities. Smith arrives with experience at Colgate and Gonzaga, and the program highlighted an assist-to-turnover ratio above 2.5-to-1.

Against Villanova, his most valuable contribution may be getting the ball to the correct teammate one pass earlier.

Consider a high ball screen involving Duncomb. If Villanova's center stays near the paint, Smith needs to make the defender choose between containing his drive and staying connected to the rolling big man. If a wing defender moves inward to help, the opening may belong to Roberts or Shrewsberry.

The advantage disappears if Smith holds the ball long enough for that wing to recover.

For Notre Dame, successful point-guard play should show up in the quality of the next shot: a catch with room to shoot, an interior touch before the defense sets or a drive against a defender already moving.

Logan Duncomb: Giving the offense an interior reference point

Duncomb averaged 18.3 points and 8.9 rebounds at Winthrop and earned the 2026 Big South Player of the Year award. His arrival addresses an explicit priority for Micah Shrewsberry: establishing an experienced post presence.

His production will face a different physical challenge against Villanova, but Notre Dame does not need every possession to end with a Duncomb shot.

An effective post touch can move the defense. If Duncomb catches near the lane and forces help, the Irish can play through him to cutters and perimeter shooters. If the defense stays home, he must make single coverage uncomfortable enough that Villanova eventually reconsiders.

The location of the catch matters. Receiving the ball close to the basket creates pressure immediately. Catching several feet farther out allows Villanova's size to become more influential.

Notre Dame should also explore making Duncomb useful before the post entry: screening for a shooter, changing the angle of a ball screen or rolling into an early seal.

Ethan Roberts: Connecting the floor

Roberts arrives from Penn as a fifth-year wing. Notre Dame's roster also lists previous stops at Army and Drake.

His potential value lies in helping possessions continue after the initial action.

When Smith creates penetration, Roberts needs to maintain useful spacing. When Villanova closes out aggressively, he needs to move the advantage forward through a drive or pass. When a teammate enters the post, his cut or relocation can prevent his defender from watching the ball without consequence.

That is an important distinction in evaluating transfers. A player can improve an offense without taking the most shots. Making the defense honor another position creates room for everyone else.

Villanova's newcomers expand its choices

Kevin Willard's offseason additions include guards Elijah Crawford, Darryl Simmons II and Jake Fiegen, forwards Devin Royal and Kwame Evans Jr., and freshman center Luigi Suigo. Their previous programs include UIC, St. Bonaventure, Cornell, Ohio State and Oregon, while Suigo arrives from BC Mega Basket.

The appeal is the range of combinations.

Villanova can potentially surround its center with shooting, use multiple ball handlers or play through a forward against a favorable matchup. The challenge is deciding which combination works against the opponent on the floor.

Elijah Crawford: Organizing a team with several scoring options

Crawford averaged 14.1 points and 4.9 assists at UIC. His transition to Villanova gives him a different assignment: directing an offense with several teammates capable of finishing possessions.

His decisions will help determine whether Villanova's size becomes a coordinated advantage.

If Suigo establishes position early, Crawford needs to recognize the entry. If Notre Dame loads the paint, he needs to move the ball before the defense can settle. If Royal has a favorable matchup, the offense should find it without spending an entire possession arranging it.

New teams can become hesitant when several players are waiting for someone else to initiate. Crawford's ability to establish an early rhythm could be especially important in an unfamiliar arena.

Devin Royal: A forward who can change the matchup

Royal gives Villanova a 6-foot-6, 230-pound forward with experience at Ohio State.

For this matchup, his appeal is the possibility of forcing Notre Dame into uncomfortable assignments.

Put a smaller defender on him, and Villanova can explore a post-up or deep catch. Assign a taller defender, and the Wildcats can test that player's ability to contain a drive from the perimeter.

Royal also becomes important when Notre Dame's big men help elsewhere. A defender occupied by Suigo cannot simultaneously clean up every drive, cut and offensive rebound.

Villanova should look for opportunities to attack before those assignments are settled. An early seal against a cross-matched guard may produce a better chance than a complicated half-court possession.

Luigi Suigo: Size that changes the geometry

Suigo is listed at 7-foot-3 and 289 pounds. He averaged 7.9 points and 5.1 rebounds in 18.3 minutes across 26 ABA League games last season.

His presence creates a basic problem for Notre Dame: how much attention can the Irish devote to the middle without opening the perimeter?

A deep catch can require help. A strong roll can pull a weak-side defender away from a shooter. Even when he does not receive the ball, his position can influence where Notre Dame's defenders stand.

The Irish have an opportunity at the other end, however. They can test how comfortably he handles repeated screening actions away from the basket.

Suigo's impact should therefore be judged in both directions. Finishing inside matters, but so does recovering after a ball screen, identifying the next rotation and completing a defensive possession with a rebound.

The guards off the bench could change the game

Simmons made 94 three-pointers at 42.5% for St. Bonaventure last season. Fiegen averaged 17.1 points at Cornell while shooting better than 41% from three.

Their shooting gives Willard a way to punish a defense that becomes too focused on the interior.

For Notre Dame, the problem is maintaining discipline through substitutions. A coverage that works against one lineup may become dangerous when another shooter enters.

Helping an extra step toward the paint is a small decision. Against the right lineup, it can produce a very large consequence.

The X's and O's: How Notre Dame can attack

Make Villanova defend a second action

Notre Dame should avoid allowing its offense to end after one ball screen.

If Villanova contains the initial action, the Irish can reverse the ball and immediately screen again. The objective is to make the defense change direction and communicate twice.

That is especially useful against a newly assembled group. The first coverage may be clear; the next rotation may be less settled.

Use Koehler to make frontcourt defenders leave comfortable positions

Koehler's ability to contribute away from the basket gives Notre Dame an interesting lever. He made 38.2% of his three-point attempts last season.

A pick-and-pop—screening for the ball handler and then moving outward instead of rolling—could make Villanova choose between protecting the lane and conceding a perimeter opportunity.

Another option is to begin with Koehler at the elbow and use a handoff. If his defender stays back, the guard can turn the corner. If the defender steps forward, Koehler can move into the space behind him.

These are possible counters, not guarantees of an open shot. Their purpose is to make size defend movement.

Make the helper defend two threats

The best way to punish interior help is to place a shooter or cutter where that helper has another responsibility.

If Duncomb rolls toward the basket while a shooter occupies the corner, the weak-side defender must decide when to leave and how far to go.

Notre Dame needs to deliver the pass while that decision is being made. Waiting until the defense has recovered turns a useful advantage into an ordinary perimeter catch.

The X's and O's: How Villanova can attack

Establish Suigo early, then play off the response

Villanova should explore early interior touches before Notre Dame can organize its help.

If the Irish defend Suigo one-on-one, the Wildcats can evaluate that matchup. If help comes, the next pass should attack the space it leaves.

The priority is avoiding a static possession in which everyone watches the post. Cutting and relocating make the double-team harder to execute.

Use Royal against switches

If Notre Dame switches a smaller defender onto Royal, Villanova can look for a quick seal.

The word quick matters. Delaying the entry gives the Irish time to exchange assignments or send help.

The Wildcats do not need to force every mismatch. They need to recognize the ones that can be exploited before the defense fixes them.

Make Notre Dame choose between rebounding and transition defense

Villanova's frontcourt can potentially create extra possessions, but offensive rebounding requires balance.

Sending too many players toward the rim could allow Notre Dame to attack before Suigo and the other big men recover. Sending too few could surrender one of Villanova's clearest physical opportunities.

Watch which players Willard releases toward the offensive glass and which guards retreat. Those decisions will influence the pace even without either team deliberately trying to run.

Availability could change the entire frontcourt discussion

Evans missed Villanova's October 22 exhibition with a left-leg injury and was listed by the school as day-to-day. An earlier official update said Matt Hodge remained in rehabilitation from ACL surgery without a timetable for returning to full basketball activities. Those updates do not establish final game-day availability.

If Evans can play effectively, Villanova gains another frontcourt option and more flexibility in matching up with Koehler and Duncomb.

If he cannot, the Wildcats have fewer ways to distribute those responsibilities. Smaller lineups may create offensive spacing while asking more of Royal defensively and on the glass.

Any preview that assumes Villanova's full-season roster will be available in Rome risks missing a major part of the matchup.

What the exhibitions tell us—and what they do not

Notre Dame beat DePaul 71–63 in its final exhibition, making 12 of 30 three-point attempts. That is an encouraging indication of the perimeter threat the Irish hope to develop, although one game cannot establish how consistently that shooting will travel.

Villanova's final exhibition was a 93–71 loss to Virginia. The Cavaliers made 15 threes and held a 19–7 advantage in points off turnovers. Royal scored 21, Perkins 20 and Suigo 12.

The useful lesson is about questions to carry into Sunday.

Can Notre Dame create good shots when the initial action is denied? Can Villanova protect the ball and contain perimeter movement? Can both teams execute their second defensive rotation?

Exhibitions identify areas worth examining. They provide a limited basis for declaring those areas solved—or permanently broken.

MMH's matchup lean

Villanova has the more appealing range of lineup options, while Notre Dame has a plausible route to controlling the game through decision-making and movement.

The Wildcats can strengthen their case by establishing the interior, finding Royal against favorable assignments and using their shooting depth when Notre Dame helps.

The Irish can counter by protecting the ball, forcing Villanova's big men to defend multiple actions and making their perimeter opportunities the result of purposeful offense.

The most revealing early statistic may be turnovers. Empty possessions would prevent Notre Dame from testing Villanova's defense and keep Villanova from using its physical advantages. The next may be offensive rebounds: which team can finish a stop without conceding another chance?

The matchup offers enough uncertainty to make execution more persuasive than reputation—and enough new personnel to make the opening possessions unusually informative.

Sources

MMH prediction

Notre Dame 75, Villanova 76.