2026-27 Summit League Preview: St. Thomas Leads, Oral Roberts Is the Sleeper

2026-10-27

St. Thomas is Mid-Major Hoops’ pick to win the 2026–27 Summit League, with defending champion North Dakota State close behind. Oral Roberts is the more aggressive call: third in MMH’s forecast and in the supplied Bart Torvik conference order, despite seventh-place positions in both the official preseason poll and Blue Ribbon. South Dakota State has the league’s preseason player of the year and a major small-college addition, making the difference between third and fourth especially narrow.

The league has eight teams following Denver’s departure for the West Coast Conference. That produces a 14-game double round robin and less room to recover from a poor road weekend. MMH retains the preliminary records after the roster review: the forecast totals 56 wins and 56 losses, as an eight-team, 14-game schedule requires. These are editorial projections, separate from MMH’s game prediction model.

MMH projected order

The Torvik column reflects the order in the supplied 2027 screenshot, not a newly downloaded ranking. Torvik’s accompanying conference records are shown separately below. Blue Ribbon’s order comes from its Summit forecast on printed page 378. No KenPom rankings are included.

Official 2026–27 preseason poll

Released October 6, 2026. The voting panel includes head coaches, sports information directors and selected media members; this is the official league preseason poll commonly described as the coaches’ poll. Official poll announcement · NDSU’s complete published poll.

Bart Torvik screenshot comparison

Tied projected records do not change the order displayed in the screenshot. In particular, South Dakota appears above Omaha, and Kansas City above North Dakota. MMH’s order is its own assessment.

Team-by-team outlook

1. St. Thomas — 11–3

Johnny Tauer’s offense still has a reliable way to create space. Carter Bjerke’s 44.9% three-point shooting makes him more than a conventional interior finisher: a defender who follows him outside can expose the lane, while staying home concedes the shot that defines his value. Austin Herro is the organizer, returning after 27 appearances and 94 assists. St. Thomas needs him to turn defensive attention into advantages rather than simply move the ball around the perimeter.

The current roster also includes Kendall Blue, back from Nebraska after three earlier seasons as a Tommie. That is an important update to the yearbook’s personnel picture. His 2025–26 Nebraska line was modest—0.7 points in 19 appearances—but his earlier St. Thomas experience gives the wing group another plausible high-minute option. Blue’s projected starting spot is conditional: October 21 reporting still described fifth-year eligibility uncertainty. MMH has not independently verified a final ruling. Julius Wade is the alternative wing starter in the accompanying depth chart if Blue cannot play.

The newcomers offer different answers. Brogan Madson scored 19.1 points per game at Division II Sioux Falls and should supply more self-created offense than a typical spot-up addition. Jeremy Lorenz brings a physical forward option after Wofford and an injury-shortened DePaul season. Green Bay transfer Caden Wilkins supplies perimeter shooting from a forward position; Ellsworth transfer Jonovan Wilkinson offers another ballhandler. His relevant 2025–26 scoring average is 11.8, rather than the prior-season 9.2 figure.

The risk is assuming last season’s excellent offensive execution transfers automatically to a group replacing major creators. Madson’s production came against Division II competition, and Lorenz played only nine games at DePaul. Luka Momcilovic has yet to play a college game. Nevertheless, the combination of spacing, passing and lineup flexibility supports first place. The Blue uncertainty narrows the margin over NDSU; it does not erase the underlying case.

2. North Dakota State — 10–4

North Dakota State won 27 games and swept the league’s regular-season and tournament championships. The best argument for another title begins with Andy Stefonowicz. His 4.8 assists per game and 90.3% free-throw shooting give David Richman an experienced decision-maker to connect a largely rebuilt rotation. He can influence an offense without dominating its shot attempts, which matters when several new teammates must establish where they fit.

Rob Diaz III and Melvin Bell Jr. bring recent Division I backcourt minutes from Long Beach State and San Jose State. Diaz supplies a second creator; Bell offers size and experience handling substantial minutes against Mountain West opponents. Bell’s 27.0% three-point shooting is a warning against projecting a finished perimeter scorer. NDSU will need better shot selection and spacing around him, not merely a larger role.

The interior additions are the reason this is more than a guard-led rebuild. Andrew Nagy averaged 15.5 points and 6.1 rebounds at Point Loma, with efficient finishing and credible three-point shooting. Karl Poom brings a Division I offensive sample from Northern Arizona, while Kaden Tate supplies rebounding and defensive activity after Des Moines Area CC. Tate’s 9.1 rebounds per game is particularly useful insurance for a team replacing much of its old frontcourt. Those numbers came at different competitive levels and should not be added together as a guaranteed Division I scoring total.

Jack Robison, Carson Smith and Riley Massey provide wing and guard options around the main group. Freshman Max Iversen has a path into the rotation without being required to run the team immediately. NDSU’s most important question is how quickly the transfers can defend and execute together. Richman’s established program and Stefonowicz’s continuity make the Bison a credible favorite; MMH gives St. Thomas a slight edge for its shooting combinations and offensive fit.

3. Oral Roberts — 8–6 — MMH sleeper

The case for Oral Roberts is improvement through complementary personnel rather than a sudden return to its best recent seasons. Kory Barnett now has a returning perimeter scorer in Connor Dow, an experienced young point guard in Cal Furnish and a frontcourt scorer in Luke Gray. Dow’s 12.5 points per game came across all 33 games. Furnish was forced into meaningful work as a freshman, while Gray gives Barnett an option who can move between frontcourt roles.

Marko Pavlovic is the addition that most changes the lineup. He produced 12.3 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.9 assists at Missouri Western State. A productive interior passer can make a perimeter-oriented roster less dependent on difficult jump shots: the ball can enter the post, force a decision and come back out to a better opportunity. The concern is the jump from Division II, especially when he must defend experienced opposing big men.

Cam Haffner arrives through Eastern Illinois, Evansville and Western Kentucky. His 2025–26 WKU average was 4.3 points, not his 12.7-point Evansville average from 2024–25. That distinction matters, but his earlier scoring history still supports a larger Summit role. Nevada transfer Amire Robinson gives the guard rotation another experienced body. Mihail Gavazov adds shooting after making 43.0% of his threes at NAIA Lindsey Wilson, and Martins Kilups remains a developmental perimeter piece. Chase Martin contributes rebounding and secondary passing without needing many shots.

The weaknesses are real. ORU went 10–23 and 4–12 in league play, and replacing departed production is different from simply returning players. Furnish must become more assertive, the newcomers must survive defensively, and neither Haffner’s older scoring season nor Pavlovic’s lower-division efficiency guarantees an immediate breakthrough. Thomas Zorbas adds size, but a complete verified 2025–26 club statistical line was not recovered. MMH’s 8–6 prediction is a competitive upper-half projection, not a declaration that the defensive questions have already been solved.

4. South Dakota State — 7–7

South Dakota State has one of the clearest perimeter foundations in the league. Joe Sayler returns after averaging 14.5 points and making 41.2% of his threes; Kalen Garry supplies rebounding and distribution from another guard spot. Sayler’s selection as the official preseason player of the year is understandable. He has already demonstrated efficient scoring within this system, and a larger playmaking role could make him more valuable than a simple increase in shot volume.

Bryan Petersen also has more point-guard options if Trey Buchanan stays healthy. Buchanan’s 7.3-point average and 43.8% three-point shooting came in only nine games before a shoulder injury. Western Michigan transfer EJ Ryans provides a much larger recent workload: 31 starts and 27.2 minutes per game. A healthy Buchanan can stretch the defense while Ryans offers another option to organize possessions and defend opposing guards.

Jesse Van Kalsbeek is the swing piece. His 27.8 points and 12.4 rebounds at Northwestern College in Iowa made him the NAIA player of the year. His physical scoring and rebounding can address an area that guard-heavy teams often lack, but MMH is not treating those averages as a Division I projection. Alec Squires supplies size and efficient finishing, and Myles Thompson brings an eight-game, injury-shortened SIUE sample of 10.8 points and 6.1 rebounds. Colorado State transfer Jon Mekonnen gives Petersen another athletic forward; Davis Kern and Jaden Rogers provide developmental depth.

MMH’s fourth-place forecast is more cautious than Blue Ribbon’s second-place selection and the official poll’s third. The explanation is health and frontcourt translation, not a lack of respect for Sayler and Garry. A healthy Buchanan and Thompson, plus a quick adjustment by Van Kalsbeek, could make this the easiest team in the top four to underestimate. If those pieces take longer, the proven backcourt may have to manufacture too many solutions by itself.

5. Omaha — 6–8

Grant Stubblefield gives Chris Crutchfield a useful starting point. A returning point guard who averaged 9.3 points and 3.3 assists can establish pace, get newcomers into their spots and help a reconstructed group avoid wasting possessions. He also made 52.1% of his field-goal attempts, an encouraging foundation for a guard whose value extends beyond three-point volume.

The frontcourt has several distinct possibilities. Isaac Ondekane returns after missing all of 2025–26 with a lower-leg injury, offering the possibility of a stronger interior scoring and defensive presence. Brock Scholl’s 4.1 points and 3.3 rebounds came in 14.4 minutes per game, so a larger workload is plausible. Kansas City transfer Chris Dockery adds a different kind of forward: his official Omaha biography lists 7.2 points and 6.0 rebounds at his previous school. Nebraska transfer Justin Bolis has physical potential, but his 2025–26 production was limited to a very small reserve role.

Cahmai Crosby arrives from North Texas, while Deke Thompson is a newcomer after redshirting at Texas State. Howard College transfer Dace Pleasant offers another wing-forward combination and experience on a successful junior-college team. Heri Bukinga gives the second unit size after a Drake redshirt season, and freshman Jonny Jordan Jr. is a developmental guard option. The 10-player projection follows the current official roster; yearbook-mentioned Marcus Gillespie is not included because he was not listed on the checked current roster.

The official poll places Omaha fourth, one spot above MMH. The disagreement rests on how much of the projected production requires a healthy return, a larger role or a step up from junior college. A healthy Ondekane could change the offense’s geometry and reduce the burden on Stubblefield. If the frontcourt remains unsettled, the Mavericks may have to win too many games with lineups still learning how to score together. Fifth is a narrow placement within a competitive middle, not a low ceiling.

6. South Dakota — 6–8

South Dakota’s roster has more shooting possibilities than its returning-starter count suggests. Kajus Kublickas supplies point-guard experience from Pacific, where he averaged 3.0 assists. Vince Buzelis returns after a 7.1-point, 4.0-rebound freshman season interrupted by injury. His 52.2% field-goal shooting offers a foundation for attacking the lane; the next step is becoming more consistent away from the basket.

Melo Sanchez and Jahni Summers bring evidence of recent perimeter shooting. Sanchez made 42.8% of his threes at Central Connecticut, while Summers made 57 at Sacramento State. Those additions can help the Coyotes spread the floor around Buzelis’ drives and Kublickas’ ballhandling. D’Youville transfer Elisha Warren offers another scoring option after a 16.1-point season in Division II, and returning Ethan Kizer provides another forward who can operate outside.

The bigger uncertainty is inside. Stef van Bussel played 17 games at Duquesne in a limited role. Josh Townley-Thomas managed only one official Creighton appearance before a foot injury; his six points in that game are not evidence of a full season of production. Tyler Netolicky’s 12-game Kirkwood sample is encouraging as a rebounding indicator, but his ACL recovery must be kept separate from a healthy depth-chart assumption. Josiah Dotzler also enters the projection after a season without verified appearances and a longer knee-injury recovery.

Eric Peterson has enough guard options to improve shot quality. Whether that produces more wins depends on protecting the paint, finishing possessions with rebounds and keeping the returning and recovering players available. MMH leaves South Dakota level with Omaha at 6–8, with the Mavericks narrowly ahead in the ordered table. If the injury questions resolve well, the Coyotes have a credible route into the upper half.

7. North Dakota — 4–10

North Dakota’s 18-win season and run to the league tournament final deserve recognition. The difficulty is carrying that achievement into a team whose new personnel must do much of the creating. The current official roster does not include Garrett Anderson, whose possible return was a major part of Blue Ribbon’s outlook. MMH therefore does not build the projection around his availability.

Luke Winkel is the most important new offensive piece. He averaged 18.7 points and 4.0 assists at St. Cloud State and gives Paul Sather a guard with experience making decisions under a heavy workload. The move from Division II is meaningful, but his role is clearer than that of a transfer who has never been asked to run a team. Tyler Wagner arrives from Austin Peay, and Samuel Hincapie brings length and recent Division I minutes from Le Moyne. Those players give the perimeter more size, although neither carried a high-volume scoring role last season.

Josh Jones provides returning interior experience, but foul discipline is central to how much that experience can help. He averaged 2.8 points and 3.3 rebounds in 17.9 minutes. Angelina College transfer Daemon Ely and Lee College transfer Jayden Thomas add junior-college rebounding and finishing. Andrija Radojevic brings professional experience from Serbia, though a complete verified club line was unavailable. Carter Evanson and Jayden Moore give the guard group freshman options, while Karson Ouse supplies returning frontcourt depth.

Blue Ribbon places UND fourth; the official poll places it sixth; the supplied Torvik order places it eighth. MMH lands seventh because the roster has credible pieces but limited proven Division I creation. Winkel’s translation and Jones’ ability to stay on the floor are the most direct ways to beat that forecast. The defense must also improve enough that useful offensive stretches become wins rather than merely competitive losses.

8. Kansas City — 4–10

Mark Turgeon inherits a program coming off a 4–27 season, but the current roster should not be evaluated as if every important newcomer were an inexperienced freshman. Jaylen Smith brings a 34-game ETSU season and a SoCon sixth-man award. Matija Samar supplies size on the perimeter after Oregon State, while Sebastian Hartmann brings experience from Eastern Washington and Chattanooga. Hartmann’s seven-game 2025–26 sample was cut short by injury, which limits how confidently it can be extrapolated.

Late addition Carl Daughtery Jr. is another significant update. Announced in August, he averaged 10.0 points and made 42.0% of his threes at UC Davis. He belongs in the projected rotation ahead of a speculative developmental option. Assane Diop provides a versatile frontcourt piece after San Diego and Colorado; his 5.2 rebounds per game at San Diego gives the lineup a recent Division I rebounding reference point.

The younger group still matters. Atuka Bakhtadze gives Turgeon a seven-footer, and Jibbe Sicking brings experience from ZZ Leiden and the Dutch national-team system despite being listed as a freshman. Elliot Moskowitz, DJ Jackson Jr. and Cameron Love are each identified as three-star high-school prospects in their official biographies. They provide a recruiting foundation, but stars do not establish how quickly a team can defend, manage possessions or finish tight league games.

Kansas City stays eighth because the new staff must establish nearly every on-court relationship while developing the depth behind its experienced transfers. The last-place label should not obscure the improved options. Smith and Daughtery can create a more functional backcourt, Diop can help the frontcourt, and Turgeon has a much longer head-coaching track record than a typical first-year rebuilding hire. A 4–10 projection allows progress while recognizing how much must come together at once.

How to read the rotations

Five starters and five reserves are MMH projections, not announced starting lineups. Positions describe expected roles; heights and class labels follow the checked 2026–27 official rosters, including schools that use academic-year labels. All statistical columns refer to 2025–26 at the named team, with lower divisions, prep and club competition identified. GP of zero means no college appearances where specified; per-game averages are N/A, not zero. Recruiting N/A means a high-school star rating or national rank could not be verified. It does not mean the player was unrated.

Wade’s conflicting statistical sources are deliberately not resolved by choosing the more favorable number. Zorbas’ full club line, several other club/JUCO fields and incomplete recruiting histories remain N/A after research; N/A preserves those gaps rather than substituting another season or player.

Sources and editorial method

Primary scouting reference: the supplied 2026–27 Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, Summit League section, printed pages 378–385 (PDF pages 380–387). All analysis here is original. The supplied Bart Torvik screenshot is the comparison snapshot. Current official rosters, individual biographies, final cumulative statistics, transfer announcements and selected credible reporting were used to check identities, dates and changes. Conflicting or unavailable figures are identified as N/A; an older season is never silently substituted for 2025–26.

St. Thomas roster · NDSU roster · ORU roster · SDSU roster · Omaha roster · South Dakota roster · North Dakota roster · Kansas City roster.