UMBC

24-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.8%UMBC

80.2%Louisville

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADLouisville -10.4

PROJECTED TOTAL149.1

MODEL MONEYLINELouisville -405

Louisville

24-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUMBC 69

Projected Total149.1

Projected ScoreLouisville 80

Team Comparison

UMBCMetricLouisville

59.1MMH Power Index67.1

113.0Offensive Efficiency118.6

99.0Defensive Efficiency102.2

14.0Net Efficiency16.4

-5.6Strength of Schedule6.0

24.7Last 10 Net Efficiency1.4

65.5Tempo71.0

54.3%Effective FG%56.9%

14.3%Turnover Rate16.8%

25.2%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

34.1%Free Throw Rate34.1%

9.1Average Margin11.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Louisville HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMLouisville holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (67.1–59.1), offensive efficiency (118.6–113.0), net efficiency (16.4–14.0), strength of schedule (6.0–-5.6).

UMBC COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (99.0–102.2), recent form (24.7–1.4), ball security (14.3–16.8).

Final

UMBC

93—94

Louisville

Louisville by 1 • 79.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UMBCTEAM STATLouisville

35-69FG34-68

51.0%FG%50.0%

11-213PT2-14

52.0%3PT%14.0%

12-22FT24-39

55.0%FT%62.0%

35Rebounds47

12Offensive Rebounds20

13Assists9

11Turnovers14

8Steals4

3Blocks5

26Fouls20

Player Box Score

UMBC

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dion Brown	G	39	11-20	2-4	4-7	5	3	2	0	28
Bryce Johnson	Guard	29	8-14	3-6	2-3	4	2	0	0	21
Khydarius Smith	Center	17	5-9	1-1	2-5	5	0	0	0	13
Devan Sapp	Guard	35	3-7	3-6	0-0	4	0	3	0	9
Franck Emmou	G	17	3-5	2-2	0-0	1	2	0	0	8
Marlon Short	Guard	25	2-2	0-0	2-3	4	1	2	0	6
Max Lorca-Lloyd	Center	23	2-7	0-0	1-2	7	1	0	3	5
Marcus Banks Jr.	G	5	1-4	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Ace Valentine	G	10	0-1	0-0	1-2	4	4	1	0	1

Louisville

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mike James	G	33	6-12	0-3	13-14	10	1	0	0	25
JJ Traynor	F	27	6-10	1-3	0-3	3	0	0	0	13
Ty-Laur Johnson	G	21	4-6	1-2	3-4	2	2	1	0	12
Skyy Clark	G	32	4-11	0-1	3-8	2	3	1	0	11
Tre White	G	26	4-10	0-1	3-5	9	1	1	0	11
Emmanuel Okorafor	F	10	4-6	0-0	0-0	6	0	0	2	8
Dennis Evans	C	16	3-5	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	2	7
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield	Forward	19	2-4	0-1	1-3	10	1	1	1	5
Curtis Williams Jr.	G	10	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Danilo Jovanovich	F	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Kaleb Glenn	F	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

79.5Possessions79.5

117.0Offensive Efficiency118.2

118.2Defensive Efficiency117.0

-1.3Net Efficiency1.3

58.7%Effective FG%51.5%

58.5%True Shooting %54.3%

14.0%Turnover Rate17.4%

31.9%Free Throw Rate57.4%

30.4%3-Point Rate20.6%

1.18Assist / Turnover0.64

Game Summary

Louisville won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 79.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.