Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

52.3%Texas State

47.7%Little Rock

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -0.4

PROJECTED TOTAL145.5

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -110

Little Rock

12-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 73

Projected Total145.5

Projected ScoreLittle Rock 73

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricLittle Rock

49.4MMH Power Index44

107.7Offensive Efficiency103.0

103.4Defensive Efficiency108.2

4.3Net Efficiency-5.2

-4.7Strength of Schedule0.5

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.7

68.6Tempo68.5

51.3%Effective FG%50.3%

18.4%Turnover Rate18.7%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %32.1%

36.0%Free Throw Rate28.6%

2.9Average Margin-3.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.4–44.0), offensive efficiency (107.7–103.0), defensive efficiency (103.4–108.2), net efficiency (4.3–-5.2).

Little Rock COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.5–-4.7).

Final

Texas State

66—71

Little Rock

Little Rock by 5 • 74.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATLittle Rock

24-62FG22-59

39.0%FG%37.0%

5-233PT5-18

22.0%3PT%28.0%

13-22FT22-29

59.0%FT%76.0%

53Rebounds31

21Offensive Rebounds10

14Assists11

22Turnovers12

2Steals8

4Blocks4

23Fouls18

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joshua O'Garro	G	20	6-7	1-2	2-2	8	2	0	1	15
Brandon Love	Forward	31	5-13	0-0	3-4	10	0	0	2	13
Dontae Horne	G	23	4-10	2-6	2-3	7	4	1	0	12
Tyrel Morgan	Forward	27	3-4	1-2	2-2	8	2	0	0	9
Christian Turner	Forward	29	3-7	0-1	1-4	6	1	0	0	7
Kaden Gumbs	G	27	2-7	0-2	3-5	3	3	0	1	7
Dylan Dawson	Guard	32	1-10	1-7	0-2	6	2	1	0	3
Chris Nix	Forward	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Elijah Tate	Guard	4	0-3	0-3	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Little Rock

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
KK Robinson	G	37	5-12	0-3	14-18	4	4	5	2	24
DeAntoni Gordon	Forward	34	8-15	2-3	1-4	8	2	1	0	19
Jordan Jefferson	Guard	24	2-7	1-3	2-2	2	1	1	0	7
Cougar Downing	G	22	1-5	1-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	3
Ante Beljan	F	6	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson	F	21	0-3	0-2	0-0	4	0	0	1	0
Bradley Douglas	G	16	0-6	0-2	0-0	1	2	1	0	0
Creed Williamson	F	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

74.2Possessions74.2

88.9Offensive Efficiency95.7

95.7Defensive Efficiency88.9

-6.7Net Efficiency6.7

42.7%Effective FG%41.5%

45.5%True Shooting %48.8%

30.0%Turnover Rate16.0%

35.5%Free Throw Rate49.2%

37.1%3-Point Rate30.5%

0.64Assist / Turnover0.92

Game Summary

Little Rock won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 74.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.