Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

45.6%Arkansas State

54.4%Bowling Green

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBowling Green -3.6

PROJECTED TOTAL160.0

MODEL MONEYLINEBowling Green -119

Bowling Green

18-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 78

Projected Total160.0

Projected ScoreBowling Green 82

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricBowling Green

57.7MMH Power Index54.7

113.1Offensive Efficiency112.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency99.1

7.8Net Efficiency13.5

-1.0Strength of Schedule-4.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency1.4

73.3Tempo72.2

52.7%Effective FG%53.4%

19.4%Turnover Rate15.9%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %29.2%

39.6%Free Throw Rate38.7%

5.8Average Margin9.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.7), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.7), recent form (15.2–1.4).

Bowling Green COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (99.1–105.3), net efficiency (13.5–7.8), shooting efficiency (53.4–52.7).

Final

Arkansas State

75—81

Bowling Green

Bowling Green by 6 • 69.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATBowling Green

32-65FG30-60

49.0%FG%50.0%

7-223PT6-18

32.0%3PT%33.0%

4-9FT15-20

44.0%FT%75.0%

34Rebounds35

9Offensive Rebounds7

15Assists9

10Turnovers6

3Steals8

6Blocks4

17Fouls13

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	35	14-27	1-5	2-5	5	7	0	0	31
Freddy Hicks	G	21	4-9	2-6	2-3	3	1	0	0	12
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	37	5-10	1-5	0-1	10	1	1	2	11
Derrian Ford	G	32	3-8	2-4	0-0	6	2	0	1	8
Lado Laku	Forward	22	3-4	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	6
Avery Felts	Guard	9	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Caleb Fields	Guard	34	1-3	0-1	0-0	2	4	2	1	2
Izaiyah Nelson	F	8	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	2
Julian Lual	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Bowling Green

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Marcus Hill	G	38	9-17	0-2	8-10	5	4	0	0	26
DaJion Humphrey	G	31	8-11	4-6	2-2	4	0	2	0	22
Jason Spurgin	Center	23	4-9	1-3	0-2	2	2	1	3	9
Rashaun Agee	F	14	4-5	0-0	1-2	6	0	1	0	9
Sam Towns	F	26	2-6	0-0	4-4	7	0	1	0	8
P.J. Edwards	G	23	2-6	1-4	0-0	3	1	1	1	5
DJ Smith	G	16	1-3	0-0	0-0	1	1	2	0	2
Da'Shawn Phillip	Guard	28	0-2	0-2	0-0	4	1	0	0	0
Anthony McComb III	G	1	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.4Possessions69.4

108.1Offensive Efficiency116.7

116.7Defensive Efficiency108.1

-8.6Net Efficiency8.6

54.6%Effective FG%55.0%

54.1%True Shooting %58.3%

14.2%Turnover Rate8.8%

13.8%Free Throw Rate33.3%

33.8%3-Point Rate30.0%

1.50Assist / Turnover1.50

Game Summary

Bowling Green won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 69.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.