App State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

90.7%App State

9.3%Northern Illinois

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADApp State -13.3

PROJECTED TOTAL142.8

MODEL MONEYLINEApp State -975

Northern Illinois

9-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreApp State 78

Projected Total142.8

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 65

Team Comparison

App StateMetricNorthern Illinois

54.2MMH Power Index29.2

110.9Offensive Efficiency99.7

101.7Defensive Efficiency111.6

9.2Net Efficiency-11.9

-4.2Strength of Schedule-2.1

7.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-28.8

64.9Tempo69.7

51.1%Effective FG%48.5%

15.2%Turnover Rate21.3%

34.2%Offensive Rebound %31.7%

39.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

6.0Average Margin-8.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

App State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY90.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMApp State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.2–29.2), offensive efficiency (110.9–99.7), defensive efficiency (101.7–111.6), net efficiency (9.2–-11.9).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-2.1–-4.2).

Final

App State

78—91

Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois by 13 • 79.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

App StateTEAM STATNorthern Illinois

32-77FG29-58

42.0%FG%50.0%

5-193PT9-23

26.0%3PT%39.0%

9-16FT24-29

56.0%FT%83.0%

40Rebounds34

18Offensive Rebounds6

10Assists15

12Turnovers14

7Steals3

2Blocks3

22Fouls14

Player Box Score

App State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Donovan Gregory	Forward	25	7-12	0-0	3-5	5	2	0	0	17
Christopher Mantis	Forward	24	6-14	3-9	1-3	2	1	0	0	16
CJ Huntley	Forward	30	6-9	1-2	1-2	4	0	1	0	14
Justin Abson	F	28	5-9	0-0	1-2	7	0	1	1	11
Terence Harcum	Guard	32	3-12	1-5	0-0	3	1	1	1	7
Tre'Von Spillers	F	17	3-8	0-0	0-0	9	0	1	0	6
Myles Tate	Guard	19	1-7	0-2	2-2	4	2	2	0	4
Jordan Marsh	G	5	1-4	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Xavion Brown	Guard	17	0-2	0-0	1-2	5	4	1	0	1
Josh Hayes	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
David Coit	G	38	8-16	2-7	9-9	5	6	1	0	27
Zarique Nutter	F	33	8-12	1-1	2-3	6	1	1	1	19
Philmon Gebrewhit	Guard	29	3-11	3-8	9-10	1	1	1	0	18
Yanic Konan Niederhauser	Forward	27	4-5	1-1	2-2	6	0	0	1	11
Xavier Amos	F	29	2-5	1-2	1-1	3	3	0	0	6
Ethan Butler	F	11	2-2	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	0	4
Harvin Ibarguen	Forward	12	1-1	0-0	1-2	3	0	0	0	3
Zion Russell	G	9	1-3	1-2	0-2	2	2	0	0	3
Will Lovings-Watts	G	12	0-3	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

79.2Possessions79.2

98.5Offensive Efficiency114.9

114.9Defensive Efficiency98.5

-16.4Net Efficiency16.4

44.8%Effective FG%57.8%

46.1%True Shooting %63.4%

15.3%Turnover Rate17.5%

20.8%Free Throw Rate50.0%

24.7%3-Point Rate39.7%

0.83Assist / Turnover1.07

Game Summary

Northern Illinois won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 79.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.