Toledo

19-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

42.1%Toledo

57.9%Wright State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADWright State -3.6

PROJECTED TOTAL159.3

MODEL MONEYLINEWright State -138

Wright State

23-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreToledo 78

Projected Total159.3

Projected ScoreWright State 81

Team Comparison

ToledoMetricWright State

58.8MMH Power Index57.1

116.0Offensive Efficiency116.4

109.6Defensive Efficiency106.5

6.4Net Efficiency9.9

2.3Strength of Schedule-2.0

10.2Last 10 Net Efficiency7.0

69.8Tempo69.2

55.1%Effective FG%55.2%

14.6%Turnover Rate16.1%

30.4%Offensive Rebound %33.9%

30.3%Free Throw Rate38.3%

4.5Average Margin6.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Wright State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMWright State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (116.4–116.0), defensive efficiency (106.5–109.6), net efficiency (9.9–6.4), shooting efficiency (55.2–55.1).

Toledo COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (58.8–57.1), strength of schedule (2.3–-2.0), recent form (10.2–7.0).

Final

Toledo

78—77

Wright State

Toledo by 1 • 66.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ToledoTEAM STATWright State

32-65FG32-58

49.0%FG%55.0%

5-163PT4-16

31.0%3PT%25.0%

9-14FT9-11

64.0%FT%82.0%

30Rebounds33

15Offensive Rebounds13

12Assists15

10Turnovers15

10Steals5

—Blocks5

15Fouls11

Player Box Score

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Dante Maddox Jr.	Guard	28	6-12	4-8	4-6	0	4	1	20
Ra'Heim Moss	Guard	32	7-13	0-3	2-3	7	2	3	16
Javan Simmons	F	34	7-10	1-2	0-0	4	0	0	15
Sonny Wilson	G	31	4-8	0-1	0-0	2	3	1	8
Tyler Cochran	G	20	3-8	0-0	0-0	3	1	4	6
Bryce Ford	G	5	2-2	0-0	1-1	3	1	0	5
Grgur Brcic	F	8	2-4	0-0	0-2	4	0	0	4
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	14	0-2	0-2	2-2	1	1	0	2
Sam Lewis	G	11	1-5	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	2
Ben Wight	Forward	17	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0

Wright State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Trey Calvin	Guard	35	9-18	2-5	2-2	0	4	2	0	22
AJ Braun	Forward	31	8-10	0-0	0-0	7	3	0	2	16
Tanner Holden	Guard	31	5-10	0-2	5-5	3	4	2	0	15
Brandon Noel	F	40	3-7	2-3	2-3	8	0	0	3	10
Drey Carter	F	9	3-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
Alex Huibregtse	G	27	2-6	0-4	0-1	4	2	0	0	4
Kaden Brown	G	13	2-3	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	4
Logan Woods	G	12	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	1	1	0	0
Andrew Welage	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.0Possessions66.0

118.2Offensive Efficiency116.7

116.7Defensive Efficiency118.2

1.5Net Efficiency-1.5

53.1%Effective FG%58.6%

54.4%True Shooting %60.9%

15.0%Turnover Rate23.0%

21.5%Free Throw Rate19.0%

24.6%3-Point Rate27.6%

1.20Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Toledo won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 66.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, True Shooting %, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.