Montana State

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

30.3%Montana State

69.7%California

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCalifornia -5.7

PROJECTED TOTAL152.5

MODEL MONEYLINECalifornia -230

California

22-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMontana State 73

Projected Total152.5

Projected ScoreCalifornia 79

Team Comparison

Montana StateMetricCalifornia

53.6MMH Power Index56.5

114.4Offensive Efficiency111.8

104.9Defensive Efficiency104.8

9.5Net Efficiency7.0

-3.7Strength of Schedule2.8

4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency1.8

68.1Tempo69.9

55.1%Effective FG%52.6%

14.7%Turnover Rate14.9%

28.1%Offensive Rebound %26.6%

30.7%Free Throw Rate36.8%

6.5Average Margin4.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Montana State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY69.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMontana State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (114.4–111.8), net efficiency (9.5–7.0), recent form (4.9–1.8), shooting efficiency (55.1–52.6).

California COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (56.5–53.6), defensive efficiency (104.8–104.9), strength of schedule (2.8–-3.7).

Final

Montana State

63—60

California

Montana State by 3 • 63.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Montana StateTEAM STATCalifornia

25-58FG20-48

43.0%FG%42.0%

4-243PT3-18

17.0%3PT%17.0%

9-11FT17-21

82.0%FT%81.0%

25Rebounds39

7Offensive Rebounds11

8Assists5

8Turnovers16

9Steals5

4Blocks4

19Fouls14

Player Box Score

Montana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Brandon Walker	F	28	12-21	1-6	1-2	3	4	0	1	26
Patrick McMahon	G	27	5-8	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	10
Brian Goracke	Forward	34	2-6	0-3	4-4	3	0	2	0	8
Tyler Patterson	Guard	38	3-4	1-2	0-0	2	0	3	1	7
Sam Lecholat	Forward	25	2-6	2-4	0-0	2	1	1	0	6
Jed Miller	G	12	1-6	0-3	4-4	2	1	2	1	6
Robert Ford III	Guard	29	0-5	0-3	0-1	9	1	1	1	0
Chika Nduka	Forward	7	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

California

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaylon Tyson	Forward	39	9-18	0-3	9-9	8	2	2	1	27
Fardaws Aimaq	Forward	35	5-11	1-2	3-4	12	1	1	1	14
Jalen Cone	Guard	38	3-12	1-10	1-2	3	2	0	1	8
Grant Newell	F	31	0-1	0-1	3-4	4	0	1	1	3
Rodney Brown Jr.	G	7	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
ND Okafor	C	5	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Vladimir Pavlovic	G	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Gus Larson	F	5	0-0	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	0	1
Monty Bowser	G	32	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	1	0	0
Wrenn Robinson	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.6Possessions63.6

99.1Offensive Efficiency94.3

94.3Defensive Efficiency99.1

4.7Net Efficiency-4.7

46.6%Effective FG%44.8%

49.8%True Shooting %51.7%

12.5%Turnover Rate25.4%

19.0%Free Throw Rate43.8%

41.4%3-Point Rate37.5%

1.00Assist / Turnover0.31

Game Summary

Montana State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 63.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.