Northwestern State

10-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

51.2%Northwestern State

48.8%North Florida

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthwestern State -0.6

PROJECTED TOTAL153.5

MODEL MONEYLINENorthwestern State -105

North Florida

7-25

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthwestern State 77

Projected Total153.5

Projected ScoreNorth Florida 76

Team Comparison

Northwestern StateMetricNorth Florida

41.3MMH Power Index36.3

104.0Offensive Efficiency109.4

109.0Defensive Efficiency121.1

-5.0Net Efficiency-11.7

-1.6Strength of Schedule-0.6

-4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.3

63.6Tempo72.8

49.5%Effective FG%53.6%

17.6%Turnover Rate17.2%

27.1%Offensive Rebound %26.6%

41.2%Free Throw Rate29.5%

-3.2Average Margin-8.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northwestern State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY51.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthwestern State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (41.3–36.3), defensive efficiency (109.0–121.1), net efficiency (-5.0–-11.7), recent form (-4.9–-9.3).

North Florida COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (109.4–104.0), strength of schedule (-0.6–-1.6), shooting efficiency (53.6–49.5).

Final

Northwestern State

74—80

North Florida

North Florida by 6 • 70.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northwestern StateTEAM STATNorth Florida

24-67FG29-62

36.0%FG%47.0%

3-183PT12-30

17.0%3PT%40.0%

23-27FT10-12

85.0%FT%83.0%

40Rebounds41

15Offensive Rebounds10

6Assists16

7Turnovers11

4Steals4

7Blocks4

13Fouls17

Player Box Score

Northwestern State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ryan Forrest	Guard	25	10-18	1-4	4-7	2	0	2	2	25
Cliff Davis	G	34	5-14	2-6	8-8	3	0	1	0	20
Chase Forte	G	24	1-6	0-1	6-6	8	1	0	1	8
Justin Wilson	Forward	21	3-5	0-0	2-2	5	0	0	2	8
JT Warren	Forward	15	2-6	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	2	4
Braelon Bush	G	29	1-7	0-5	1-2	6	5	0	0	3
Jamison Epps	Guard	29	1-5	0-1	0-0	5	0	0	0	2
Jimel Lane	F	14	1-5	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Duane Posey	G	6	0-1	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Chris Mubiru	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

North Florida

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chaz Lanier	Guard	34	6-13	3-7	2-3	10	3	0	1	17
Jah Nze	Guard	25	6-9	5-7	0-0	4	1	0	1	17
Ametri Moss	G	26	4-9	0-1	4-4	2	2	1	0	12
Nate Lliteras	Guard	29	3-7	1-4	4-5	3	2	2	1	11
Dorian James	Guard	29	5-10	0-1	0-0	12	4	1	1	10
Jake van der Heijden	Forward	22	3-6	1-3	0-0	5	1	0	0	7
Jaylen Smith	G	15	2-6	2-5	0-0	0	2	0	0	6
Oscar Berry	Guard	17	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jasai Miles	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.3Possessions70.3

105.3Offensive Efficiency113.8

113.8Defensive Efficiency105.3

-8.5Net Efficiency8.5

38.1%Effective FG%56.5%

46.4%True Shooting %59.1%

9.7%Turnover Rate16.0%

40.3%Free Throw Rate19.4%

26.9%3-Point Rate48.4%

0.86Assist / Turnover1.45

Game Summary

North Florida won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 70.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.