Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

44.3%Missouri State

55.7%Florida Gulf Coast

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADFlorida Gulf Coast -2.5

PROJECTED TOTAL153.5

MODEL MONEYLINEFlorida Gulf Coast -126

Florida Gulf Coast

16-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 75

Projected Total153.5

Projected ScoreFlorida Gulf Coast 78

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricFlorida Gulf Coast

51.1MMH Power Index48.6

110.5Offensive Efficiency110.5

108.4Defensive Efficiency109.2

2.1Net Efficiency1.3

0.5Strength of Schedule-1.8

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency0.7

67.9Tempo70.0

51.8%Effective FG%52.1%

16.4%Turnover Rate15.7%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

42.9%Free Throw Rate29.9%

1.4Average Margin0.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Missouri State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMissouri State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.1–48.6), defensive efficiency (108.4–109.2), net efficiency (2.1–1.3), strength of schedule (0.5–-1.8).

Florida Gulf Coast COUNTERS WITHrecent form (0.7–-2.1), shooting efficiency (52.1–51.8), ball security (15.7–16.4).

Final

Missouri State

70—61

Florida Gulf Coast

Missouri State by 9 • 61.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATFlorida Gulf Coast

25-46FG23-55

54.0%FG%42.0%

12-253PT4-19

48.0%3PT%21.0%

8-11FT11-17

73.0%FT%65.0%

26Rebounds27

5Offensive Rebounds12

11Assists7

15Turnovers11

3Steals5

—Blocks—

18Fouls9

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Alston Mason	Guard	33	7-11	4-6	2-2	2	3	2	20
Matthew Lee	Guard	38	6-10	5-9	0-0	3	3	0	17
Donovan Clay	Guard	35	6-9	2-5	3-4	6	3	0	17
NJ Benson	F	29	4-4	0-0	3-5	6	2	0	11
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	29	2-4	1-1	0-0	2	0	0	5
Cesare Edwards	Center	14	0-5	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	0
Raphe Ayres	Guard	14	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0
Tyler Bey	G	8	0-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0

Florida Gulf Coast

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Isaiah Thompson	Guard	23	6-10	2-5	1-1	4	0	2	15
Keeshawn Kellman	Forward	27	5-7	0-0	4-6	2	0	0	14
Franco Miller Jr.	Guard	26	3-7	0-2	2-4	3	1	1	8
Chase Johnston	G	22	2-13	2-8	2-2	0	0	0	8
Zach Anderson	Forward	26	2-5	0-3	2-4	5	2	1	6
Dallion Johnson	Guard	20	3-4	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	6
Cyrus Largie	Guard	26	1-2	0-1	0-0	3	2	0	2
Rahmir Barno	G	17	1-4	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	2
Andre Weir	Center	11	0-3	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	0
Dakota Rivers	Forward	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.7Possessions61.7

113.5Offensive Efficiency98.9

98.9Defensive Efficiency113.5

14.6Net Efficiency-14.6

67.4%Effective FG%45.5%

68.3%True Shooting %48.4%

24.5%Turnover Rate17.7%

23.9%Free Throw Rate30.9%

54.3%3-Point Rate34.5%

0.73Assist / Turnover0.64

Game Summary

Missouri State won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 61.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.