Tarleton State

14-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

70.5%Tarleton State

29.5%Cal State Bakersfield

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTarleton State -6.0

PROJECTED TOTAL154.0

MODEL MONEYLINETarleton State -239

Cal State Bakersfield

8-24

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTarleton State 80

Projected Total154.0

Projected ScoreCal State Bakersfield 74

Team Comparison

Tarleton StateMetricCal State Bakersfield

44.6MMH Power Index32.2

103.2Offensive Efficiency100.2

101.6Defensive Efficiency112.6

1.6Net Efficiency-12.4

-2.3Strength of Schedule-1.7

-6.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-18.5

72.2Tempo73.0

49.0%Effective FG%46.4%

19.9%Turnover Rate18.6%

31.8%Offensive Rebound %30.2%

42.8%Free Throw Rate43.8%

1.1Average Margin-9.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Tarleton State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTarleton State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (44.6–32.2), offensive efficiency (103.2–100.2), defensive efficiency (101.6–112.6), net efficiency (1.6–-12.4).

Cal State Bakersfield COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.7–-2.3), ball security (18.6–19.9), free throw rate (43.8–42.8).

Final

Tarleton State

59—40

Cal State Bakersfield

Tarleton State by 19 • 54.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Tarleton StateTEAM STATCal State Bakersfield

22-57FG15-45

39.0%FG%33.0%

8-213PT1-17

38.0%3PT%6.0%

7-9FT9-13

78.0%FT%69.0%

39Rebounds27

16Offensive Rebounds8

8Assists8

9Turnovers12

6Steals3

—Blocks4

14Fouls13

Player Box Score

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Jakorie Smith	Forward	34	7-17	3-9	0-0	2	0	3	17
KiAndre Gaddy	Forward	34	5-12	0-0	2-3	12	1	1	12
Emmanuel Innocenti	G	40	3-5	2-3	3-4	13	0	0	11
Adam Moussa	Guard	27	3-6	1-3	0-0	4	5	2	7
Lue Williams	Guard	30	1-7	1-3	2-2	4	1	0	5
Devon Barnes	G	14	2-5	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	5
Miles Lewis	Guard	7	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	2
Traivar Jackson	F	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0
Bubu Benjamin	G	6	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0
Izzy Miles	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Cal State Bakersfield

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ugnius Jarusevicius	F	22	5-10	0-2	4-5	2	1	0	0	14
Marvin McGhee III	G	33	4-9	1-3	0-0	1	2	0	1	9
Modestas Kancleris	Forward	25	3-5	0-1	0-0	11	2	1	1	6
Kaleb Higgins	Guard	33	0-6	0-5	4-4	2	1	0	0	4
Dalph Panopio	Guard	20	1-3	0-2	0-0	1	2	0	0	2
Tom Mark	F	13	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	2	2
Corey Stephenson	G	10	1-4	0-3	0-2	1	0	0	0	2
Cameron Wilbon	Guard	15	0-4	0-1	1-2	1	0	0	0	1
Fidelis Okereke	Forward	13	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Naseem Gaskin	Guard	13	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Jaden Alexander	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

54.8Possessions54.8

107.7Offensive Efficiency73.0

73.0Defensive Efficiency107.7

34.7Net Efficiency-34.7

45.6%Effective FG%34.4%

48.1%True Shooting %39.1%

16.6%Turnover Rate21.7%

15.8%Free Throw Rate28.9%

36.8%3-Point Rate37.8%

0.89Assist / Turnover0.67

Game Summary

Tarleton State won by 19 points. The game played at approximately 54.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.