Indiana State

11-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

10.8%Indiana State

89.2%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -13.4

PROJECTED TOTAL155.5

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -826

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIndiana State 71

Projected Total155.5

Projected ScoreToledo 84

Team Comparison

Indiana StateMetricToledo

44.4MMH Power Index58.8

104.7Offensive Efficiency116.0

106.0Defensive Efficiency109.6

-1.3Net Efficiency6.4

0.1Strength of Schedule2.3

-5.2Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

70.3Tempo69.8

53.6%Effective FG%55.1%

19.5%Turnover Rate14.6%

27.3%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

28.8%Free Throw Rate30.3%

-0.9Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY89.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–44.4), offensive efficiency (116.0–104.7), net efficiency (6.4–-1.3), strength of schedule (2.3–0.1).

Indiana State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (106.0–109.6).

Final

Indiana State

76—74

Toledo

Indiana State by 2 • 74.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Indiana StateTEAM STATToledo

26-54FG31-62

48.0%FG%50.0%

9-263PT4-14

35.0%3PT%29.0%

15-19FT8-14

79.0%FT%57.0%

30Rebounds36

5Offensive Rebounds10

12Assists12

17Turnovers16

8Steals8

1Blocks4

18Fouls19

Player Box Score

Indiana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Swope	Guard	40	8-14	5-11	2-4	1	2	4	0	23
Jayson Kent	Forward	32	6-8	1-1	4-4	11	3	0	1	17
Ryan Conwell	G	37	4-12	2-6	6-6	5	1	1	0	16
Robbie Avila	C	36	4-9	1-4	2-3	7	3	3	0	11
Julian Larry	Guard	35	2-6	0-1	1-2	2	2	0	0	5
Jake Wolfe	Guard	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Xavier Bledson	Guard	6	1-3	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Derek Vorst	C	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Masen Miller	Guard	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Javan Simmons	F	25	6-10	0-2	2-2	1	0	1	1	14
Ra'Heim Moss	Guard	33	4-9	1-3	3-5	5	0	2	0	12
Tyler Cochran	G	23	6-10	0-1	0-2	7	4	0	1	12
Sam Lewis	G	19	5-7	1-1	0-0	2	0	1	1	11
Sonny Wilson	G	23	4-5	1-1	0-0	2	3	1	1	9
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	18	2-4	1-2	2-4	4	0	1	0	7
Dante Maddox Jr.	Guard	24	3-12	0-4	0-0	3	2	1	0	6
Grgur Brcic	F	15	1-3	0-0	1-1	1	2	1	0	3
Ben Wight	Forward	16	0-2	0-0	0-0	6	1	0	0	0
Bryce Ford	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

74.9Possessions74.9

101.5Offensive Efficiency98.8

98.8Defensive Efficiency101.5

2.7Net Efficiency-2.7

56.5%Effective FG%53.2%

60.3%True Shooting %53.9%

22.7%Turnover Rate21.4%

35.2%Free Throw Rate22.6%

48.1%3-Point Rate22.6%

0.71Assist / Turnover0.75

Game Summary

Indiana State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 74.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.