California

22-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.7%California

71.3%San Diego State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSan Diego State -7.1

PROJECTED TOTAL151.9

MODEL MONEYLINESan Diego State -248

San Diego State

22-10

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCalifornia 72

Projected Total151.9

Projected ScoreSan Diego State 80

Team Comparison

CaliforniaMetricSan Diego State

56.5MMH Power Index60.1

111.8Offensive Efficiency110.3

104.8Defensive Efficiency99.3

7.0Net Efficiency11.0

2.8Strength of Schedule3.8

1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency0.4

69.9Tempo70.8

52.6%Effective FG%53.2%

14.9%Turnover Rate17.2%

26.6%Offensive Rebound %30.8%

36.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

4.9Average Margin7.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

San Diego State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSan Diego State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (60.1–56.5), defensive efficiency (99.3–104.8), net efficiency (11.0–7.0), strength of schedule (3.8–2.8).

California COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (111.8–110.3), recent form (1.8–0.4), ball security (14.9–17.2).

Final

California

67—76

San Diego State

San Diego State by 9 • 73.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

CaliforniaTEAM STATSan Diego State

23-72FG20-57

32.0%FG%35.0%

9-383PT5-19

24.0%3PT%26.0%

12-18FT31-37

67.0%FT%84.0%

52Rebounds38

21Offensive Rebounds7

7Assists7

14Turnovers5

3Steals8

1Blocks1

25Fouls15

Player Box Score

California

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaylon Tyson	Forward	42	9-21	2-10	3-4	5	1	0	0	23
Fardaws Aimaq	Forward	39	4-11	1-1	5-9	18	1	0	1	14
Grant Newell	F	35	4-12	2-7	1-2	8	0	1	0	11
Rodney Brown Jr.	G	25	3-4	3-3	0-0	3	0	1	0	9
Jalen Cone	Guard	42	2-14	1-9	3-3	6	5	1	0	8
Gus Larson	F	10	1-4	0-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Monty Bowser	G	17	0-2	0-2	0-0	6	0	0	0	0
Wrenn Robinson	Guard	8	0-4	0-4	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
ND Okafor	C	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Vladimir Pavlovic	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

San Diego State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Reese Waters	Guard	40	6-11	2-3	10-10	7	0	2	0	24
Jaedon LeDee	Forward	42	6-13	0-2	7-10	7	2	1	1	19
Darrion Trammell	Guard	30	2-7	1-5	4-4	3	1	2	0	9
Micah Parrish	Guard	34	3-9	1-1	1-3	3	1	2	0	8
Elijah Saunders	F	30	2-6	1-3	2-2	5	2	0	0	7
Miles Byrd	G	13	0-4	0-4	4-4	3	0	0	0	4
Jay Pal	Forward	11	0-1	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	0	2
Miles Heide	F	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Lamont Butler	Guard	18	0-5	0-1	1-2	4	1	1	0	1

Advanced Game Stats

73.1Possessions73.1

91.7Offensive Efficiency104.0

104.0Defensive Efficiency91.7

-12.3Net Efficiency12.3

38.2%Effective FG%39.5%

41.6%True Shooting %51.0%

19.0%Turnover Rate6.9%

25.0%Free Throw Rate64.9%

52.8%3-Point Rate33.3%

0.50Assist / Turnover1.40

Game Summary

San Diego State won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 73.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.