American University

16-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.9%American University

73.1%Harvard

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADHarvard -6.8

PROJECTED TOTAL141.3

MODEL MONEYLINEHarvard -272

Harvard

17-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAmerican University 67

Projected Total141.3

Projected ScoreHarvard 74

Team Comparison

American UniversityMetricHarvard

48.2MMH Power Index52.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency108.1

105.8Defensive Efficiency102.9

4.8Net Efficiency5.2

-4.3Strength of Schedule-0.1

2.2Last 10 Net Efficiency8.3

67.5Tempo64.8

52.6%Effective FG%53.4%

15.7%Turnover Rate17.2%

28.0%Offensive Rebound %26.3%

30.1%Free Throw Rate27.9%

3.3Average Margin3.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Harvard HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMHarvard holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (52.6–48.2), defensive efficiency (102.9–105.8), net efficiency (5.2–4.8), strength of schedule (-0.1–-4.3).

American University COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (110.6–108.1), ball security (15.7–17.2), offensive rebounding (28.0–26.3).

Final

American University

75—80

Harvard

Harvard by 5 • 67.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

American UniversityTEAM STATHarvard

27-61FG28-53

44.0%FG%53.0%

9-273PT10-19

33.0%3PT%53.0%

12-16FT14-22

75.0%FT%64.0%

38Rebounds24

14Offensive Rebounds4

13Assists12

14Turnovers7

2Steals6

1Blocks3

17Fouls15

Player Box Score

American University

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Matt Rogers	Forward	32	8-15	3-6	1-3	9	3	2	1	20
Elijah Stephens	Guard	31	6-12	0-3	2-2	2	5	0	0	14
Matt Mayock	F	28	4-9	4-9	2-2	1	0	0	0	14
Lorenzo Donadio	Guard	32	4-10	2-2	0-0	2	1	0	0	10
Geoff Sprouse	G	20	4-10	0-4	1-1	4	1	0	0	9
Lincoln Ball	Guard	30	0-1	0-1	5-6	11	2	0	0	5
Jermaine Ballisager Webb	C	6	1-1	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	0	3
Colin Smalls	Guard	11	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Greg Jones	F	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	0

Harvard

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Malik Mack	G	36	8-10	4-4	6-6	5	3	1	0	26
Chisom Okpara	F	33	8-14	1-1	6-11	6	2	1	1	23
Louis Lesmond	G	33	3-10	3-7	0-0	2	1	0	0	9
Thomas Batties II	F	29	4-7	1-2	0-1	3	1	1	0	9
Chandler Pigge	G	32	3-9	1-4	0-0	3	1	1	1	7
Luca Ace-Nasteski	F	16	1-2	0-1	2-4	2	1	0	0	4
Tyler Simon	F	6	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	2
Denham Wojcik	G	15	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	3	1	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.6Possessions67.6

110.9Offensive Efficiency118.3

118.3Defensive Efficiency110.9

-7.4Net Efficiency7.4

51.6%Effective FG%62.3%

54.7%True Shooting %63.0%

20.4%Turnover Rate10.5%

26.2%Free Throw Rate41.5%

44.3%3-Point Rate35.8%

0.93Assist / Turnover1.71

Game Summary

Harvard won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 67.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.