Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

73.4%Arkansas State

26.6%Little Rock

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -6.2

PROJECTED TOTAL154.9

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -276

Little Rock

12-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 81

Projected Total154.9

Projected ScoreLittle Rock 74

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricLittle Rock

57.7MMH Power Index44

113.1Offensive Efficiency103.0

105.3Defensive Efficiency108.2

7.8Net Efficiency-5.2

-1.0Strength of Schedule0.5

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.7

73.3Tempo68.5

52.7%Effective FG%50.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.7%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.1%

39.6%Free Throw Rate28.6%

5.8Average Margin-3.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–44.0), offensive efficiency (113.1–103.0), defensive efficiency (105.3–108.2), net efficiency (7.8–-5.2).

Little Rock COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.5–-1.0), ball security (18.7–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

66—77

Little Rock

Little Rock by 11 • 73.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATLittle Rock

22-61FG26-57

36.0%FG%46.0%

7-263PT7-22

27.0%3PT%32.0%

15-24FT18-25

63.0%FT%72.0%

40Rebounds40

19Offensive Rebounds14

7Assists12

22Turnovers16

7Steals12

5Blocks5

19Fouls20

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	28	7-11	2-5	4-6	7	1	1	1	20
Derrian Ford	G	33	6-13	3-7	1-2	5	0	0	0	16
Taryn Todd	Guard	28	4-15	0-3	1-2	2	2	3	0	9
Avery Felts	Guard	18	1-4	1-4	2-2	1	0	1	0	5
Izaiyah Nelson	F	26	0-0	0-0	4-6	5	1	0	3	4
Freddy Hicks	G	21	1-7	0-3	2-4	5	1	1	0	4
Caleb Fields	Guard	9	1-3	1-1	1-2	0	2	0	0	4
Lado Laku	Forward	14	1-2	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	1	2
Zane Butler	Guard	6	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Julian Lual	Guard	12	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Terrance Ford Jr.	G	5	0-3	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Little Rock

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cougar Downing	G	35	4-13	2-9	8-8	5	0	5	0	18
Bradley Douglas	G	38	7-12	1-4	1-3	5	6	2	1	16
DeAntoni Gordon	Forward	34	6-12	1-2	1-3	15	1	0	1	14
Jaylen Crocker-Johnson	F	23	0-1	0-1	6-8	0	2	1	2	6
Creed Williamson	F	23	2-4	0-0	0-1	2	0	1	0	4
Jordan Jefferson	Guard	8	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	2
Pavle Kuzmanovic	Guard	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

73.2Possessions73.2

90.2Offensive Efficiency105.2

105.2Defensive Efficiency90.2

-15.0Net Efficiency15.0

41.8%Effective FG%51.8%

45.6%True Shooting %55.9%

29.2%Turnover Rate22.6%

39.3%Free Throw Rate43.9%

42.6%3-Point Rate38.6%

0.32Assist / Turnover0.75

Game Summary

Little Rock won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 73.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.