Murray State

20-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

35.7%Murray State

64.3%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -5.5

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -180

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMurray State 75

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreIllinois State 81

Team Comparison

Murray StateMetricIllinois State

53.6MMH Power Index54.3

115.0Offensive Efficiency110.6

111.0Defensive Efficiency101.4

4.0Net Efficiency9.2

3.5Strength of Schedule1.0

-9.5Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

72.3Tempo67.5

54.0%Effective FG%54.3%

16.3%Turnover Rate16.8%

32.7%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

39.1%Free Throw Rate32.0%

2.9Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY64.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–53.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–111.0), net efficiency (9.2–4.0), recent form (-4.4–-9.5).

Murray State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (115.0–110.6), strength of schedule (3.5–1.0), ball security (16.3–16.8).

Final

Murray State

72—76

Illinois State

Illinois State by 4 • 63.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Murray StateTEAM STATIllinois State

26-57FG28-57

46.0%FG%49.0%

10-273PT9-24

37.0%3PT%38.0%

10-15FT11-11

67.0%FT%100.0%

28Rebounds33

9Offensive Rebounds10

14Assists18

9Turnovers10

7Steals5

3Blocks4

15Fouls15

Player Box Score

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Quincy Anderson	Guard	27	8-13	6-9	5-7	2	0	2	0	27
Rob Perry	Guard	35	5-13	2-7	3-3	2	3	1	1	15
JaCobi Wood	Guard	37	5-10	1-5	0-0	3	4	1	1	11
Brian Moore Jr.	G	25	4-8	1-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	9
Samuel Murray	F	11	2-3	0-0	1-3	3	0	0	0	5
Justin Morgan	Guard	11	1-3	0-2	1-2	1	2	1	0	3
Nick Ellington	F	28	1-4	0-0	0-0	9	1	1	1	2
Shawn Walker Jr.	Guard	26	0-3	0-3	0-0	2	3	1	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kendall Lewis	Forward	31	5-5	2-2	2-2	5	1	0	2	14
Darius Burford	Guard	31	6-10	0-3	0-0	2	3	2	0	12
Myles Foster	Forward	25	6-10	0-0	0-0	5	1	0	2	12
Luke Kasubke	Guard	15	2-6	2-4	5-5	2	1	0	0	11
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	31	4-10	2-6	0-0	1	1	1	0	10
Johnny Kinziger	G	13	2-3	2-3	2-2	2	2	0	0	8
Dalton Banks	Guard	31	2-7	1-3	2-2	5	7	1	0	7
Ty Pence	G	8	1-4	0-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	2
Brandon Lieb	F	15	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	2	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.2Possessions63.2

113.9Offensive Efficiency120.3

120.3Defensive Efficiency113.9

-6.3Net Efficiency6.3

54.4%Effective FG%57.0%

56.1%True Shooting %61.1%

14.0%Turnover Rate16.1%

26.3%Free Throw Rate19.3%

47.4%3-Point Rate42.1%

1.56Assist / Turnover1.80

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 63.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.