Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

13.9%Arkansas State

86.1%Alabama

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAlabama -11.5

PROJECTED TOTAL173.1

MODEL MONEYLINEAlabama -619

Alabama

24-10

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 81

Projected Total173.1

Projected ScoreAlabama 92

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricAlabama

57.7MMH Power Index69.5

113.1Offensive Efficiency121.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency111.2

7.8Net Efficiency10.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule9.4

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

73.3Tempo74.7

52.7%Effective FG%54.9%

19.4%Turnover Rate13.0%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.1%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.9%

5.8Average Margin7.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Alabama HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY86.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAlabama holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.5–57.7), offensive efficiency (121.6–113.1), net efficiency (10.4–7.8), strength of schedule (9.4–-1.0).

Arkansas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.3–111.2), recent form (15.2–9.5), offensive rebounding (38.1–32.1).

Final

Arkansas State

65—89

Alabama

Alabama by 24 • 76.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATAlabama

22-65FG28-64

34.0%FG%44.0%

6-303PT13-31

20.0%3PT%42.0%

15-21FT20-24

71.0%FT%83.0%

40Rebounds45

15Offensive Rebounds12

10Assists17

15Turnovers14

5Steals10

7Blocks8

19Fouls17

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	38	5-18	2-8	3-4	4	2	0	1	15
Derrian Ford	G	36	5-11	1-4	1-1	5	1	2	0	12
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	27	4-9	2-6	2-2	5	2	1	1	12
Freddy Hicks	G	32	3-10	0-2	4-7	6	3	0	0	10
Izaiyah Nelson	F	25	4-8	0-3	2-3	7	0	1	3	10
Zane Butler	Guard	13	1-5	1-4	1-2	1	1	1	0	4
Lado Laku	Forward	8	0-0	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	2	2
Avery Felts	Guard	11	0-2	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	0	0
Julian Lual	Guard	10	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mark Sears	Guard	24	5-11	1-2	2-4	3	6	2	0	13
Jarin Stevenson	F	21	4-7	2-3	3-3	4	0	0	1	13
Mohamed Wague	F	24	3-4	0-0	6-6	7	1	4	3	12
Grant Nelson	Forward	16	4-6	2-4	2-2	1	2	1	1	12
Aaron Estrada	Guard	27	4-12	1-3	2-3	6	2	1	0	11
Davin Cosby Jr.	G	13	3-9	3-8	0-0	5	1	0	0	9
Rylan Griffen	G	23	2-5	1-3	3-4	3	2	0	0	8
Sam Walters	F	18	1-3	1-2	2-2	3	1	0	0	5
Latrell Wrightsell	G	27	1-4	1-4	0-0	4	2	2	0	3
Mo Dioubate	F	7	1-3	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	3	3

Advanced Game Stats

76.2Possessions76.2

85.3Offensive Efficiency116.8

116.8Defensive Efficiency85.3

-31.5Net Efficiency31.5

38.5%Effective FG%53.9%

43.3%True Shooting %59.0%

20.0%Turnover Rate18.1%

32.3%Free Throw Rate37.5%

46.2%3-Point Rate48.4%

0.67Assist / Turnover1.21

Game Summary

Alabama won by 24 points. The game played at approximately 76.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.