Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

34.0%Missouri State

66.0%Middle Tennessee

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMiddle Tennessee -5.4

PROJECTED TOTAL150.0

MODEL MONEYLINEMiddle Tennessee -194

Middle Tennessee

17-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 72

Projected Total150.0

Projected ScoreMiddle Tennessee 78

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricMiddle Tennessee

51.1MMH Power Index52.5

110.5Offensive Efficiency109.6

108.4Defensive Efficiency105.7

2.1Net Efficiency3.9

0.5Strength of Schedule0.4

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency3.2

67.9Tempo68.8

51.8%Effective FG%52.2%

16.4%Turnover Rate16.7%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %31.3%

42.9%Free Throw Rate33.2%

1.4Average Margin2.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Middle Tennessee HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMiddle Tennessee holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (52.5–51.1), defensive efficiency (105.7–108.4), net efficiency (3.9–2.1), recent form (3.2–-2.1).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (110.5–109.6), strength of schedule (0.5–0.4), ball security (16.4–16.7).

Final

Missouri State

73—77

Middle Tennessee

Middle Tennessee by 4 • 73.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATMiddle Tennessee

24-59FG28-72

41.0%FG%39.0%

8-263PT12-36

31.0%3PT%33.0%

17-19FT9-17

89.0%FT%53.0%

44Rebounds40

8Offensive Rebounds12

7Assists13

13Turnovers6

2Steals7

2Blocks6

18Fouls14

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alston Mason	Guard	44	9-20	2-9	8-8	7	2	0	0	28
Donovan Clay	Guard	36	8-17	4-6	4-5	7	1	1	0	24
Chance Moore	G	37	5-10	1-5	2-2	11	2	0	0	13
Matthew Lee	Guard	37	1-5	1-4	0-0	1	1	0	0	3
NJ Benson	F	18	0-2	0-0	3-4	7	0	0	2	3
Raphe Ayres	Guard	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	2
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	29	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Cesare Edwards	Center	8	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Tyler Bey	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Middle Tennessee

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Elias King	Guard	33	8-14	6-10	0-0	4	2	0	2	22
Jared Coleman-Jones	Forward	33	5-9	1-2	3-4	9	3	3	1	14
Jalen Jordan	Guard	25	4-7	3-4	3-5	0	0	1	0	14
Jestin Porter	G	30	4-16	1-8	1-4	4	1	1	0	10
Jacob Johnson	Guard	35	4-9	0-1	0-0	6	2	2	1	8
Justin Bufford	Guard	40	2-11	1-7	2-4	5	2	0	1	7
Chris Loofe	F	12	1-1	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	1	2
Ty Mosley	Guard	15	0-4	0-3	0-0	3	2	0	0	0
Tre Green	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

73.6Possessions73.6

99.2Offensive Efficiency104.6

104.6Defensive Efficiency99.2

-5.4Net Efficiency5.4

47.5%Effective FG%47.2%

53.7%True Shooting %48.1%

17.8%Turnover Rate8.1%

32.2%Free Throw Rate23.6%

44.1%3-Point Rate50.0%

0.54Assist / Turnover2.17

Game Summary

Middle Tennessee won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 73.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.