Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

17.4%Arkansas State

82.6%Louisville

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADLouisville -11.4

PROJECTED TOTAL162.5

MODEL MONEYLINELouisville -475

Louisville

24-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 76

Projected Total162.5

Projected ScoreLouisville 87

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricLouisville

57.7MMH Power Index67.1

113.1Offensive Efficiency118.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency102.2

7.8Net Efficiency16.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule6.0

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency1.4

73.3Tempo71.0

52.7%Effective FG%56.9%

19.4%Turnover Rate16.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate34.1%

5.8Average Margin11.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Louisville HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY82.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMLouisville holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (67.1–57.7), offensive efficiency (118.6–113.1), defensive efficiency (102.2–105.3), net efficiency (16.4–7.8).

Arkansas State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (15.2–1.4), offensive rebounding (38.1–32.3), free throw rate (39.6–34.1).

Final

Arkansas State

75—63

Louisville

Arkansas State by 12 • 69.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATLouisville

30-68FG22-61

44.0%FG%36.0%

5-253PT2-15

20.0%3PT%13.0%

10-12FT17-23

83.0%FT%74.0%

43Rebounds38

14Offensive Rebounds13

13Assists5

11Turnovers9

5Steals4

4Blocks5

19Fouls12

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Caleb Fields	Guard	33	6-8	2-2	6-8	6	8	0	0	20
Freddy Hicks	G	29	7-18	1-7	1-1	4	1	1	0	16
Izaiyah Nelson	F	23	7-7	0-0	1-1	8	0	1	3	15
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	29	3-11	1-5	0-0	10	2	0	1	7
Derrian Ford	G	24	3-7	1-3	0-0	2	0	1	0	7
Taryn Todd	Guard	20	1-8	0-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	4
Lado Laku	Forward	8	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
LaQuill Hardnett	Forward	9	1-1	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	0	2
Avery Felts	Guard	18	0-5	0-5	0-0	2	2	1	0	0
Julian Lual	Guard	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	1	0	0
Noah McDavid	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Zane Butler	Guard	1	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Louisville

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield	Forward	31	4-7	0-0	12-14	11	0	0	2	20
Mike James	G	33	3-6	0-1	4-6	7	1	0	0	10
Tre White	G	31	5-13	0-3	0-0	5	0	1	2	10
Skyy Clark	G	35	4-14	1-5	0-0	3	0	1	0	9
Ty-Laur Johnson	G	22	3-10	1-3	1-2	2	3	1	0	8
Curtis Williams Jr.	G	17	1-6	0-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	2
Emmanuel Okorafor	F	11	1-2	0-0	0-0	4	0	1	0	2
Hercy Miller	G	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Danilo Jovanovich	F	12	0-2	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	0	0
Kaleb Glenn	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Aidan McCool	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Zan Payne	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.3Possessions69.3

108.2Offensive Efficiency90.9

90.9Defensive Efficiency108.2

17.3Net Efficiency-17.3

47.8%Effective FG%37.7%

50.9%True Shooting %43.8%

15.6%Turnover Rate13.2%

17.6%Free Throw Rate37.7%

36.8%3-Point Rate24.6%

1.18Assist / Turnover0.56

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 12 points. The game played at approximately 69.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.