North Dakota State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

50.4%North Dakota State

49.6%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -0.8

PROJECTED TOTAL148.0

MODEL MONEYLINENorth Dakota State -102

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Dakota State 74

Projected Total148.0

Projected ScoreIllinois State 74

Team Comparison

North Dakota StateMetricIllinois State

59MMH Power Index54.3

115.4Offensive Efficiency110.6

100.8Defensive Efficiency101.4

14.6Net Efficiency9.2

-4.6Strength of Schedule1.0

14.3Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

69.6Tempo67.5

54.5%Effective FG%54.3%

15.5%Turnover Rate16.8%

32.0%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

31.3%Free Throw Rate32.0%

10.1Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Dakota State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Dakota State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.0–54.3), offensive efficiency (115.4–110.6), defensive efficiency (100.8–101.4), net efficiency (14.6–9.2).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.0–-4.6), free throw rate (32.0–31.3).

Final

North Dakota State

65—75

Illinois State

Illinois State by 10 • 70.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North Dakota StateTEAM STATIllinois State

26-58FG27-54

45.0%FG%50.0%

4-123PT2-9

33.0%3PT%22.0%

9-13FT19-28

69.0%FT%68.0%

31Rebounds34

7Offensive Rebounds7

11Assists12

14Turnovers9

4Steals7

—Blocks5

18Fouls12

Player Box Score

North Dakota State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Tajavis Miller	G	36	8-13	1-3	1-2	4	2	1	18
Andrew Morgan	Forward	21	5-11	0-0	5-5	5	0	1	15
Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	33	5-12	1-2	0-0	2	3	1	11
Lance Waddles	G	18	4-8	2-5	0-0	2	0	0	10
Jacari White	G	30	1-4	0-2	3-4	7	2	0	5
Boden Skunberg	G	38	2-8	0-0	0-0	7	2	1	4
Noah Feddersen	C	16	1-2	0-0	0-2	2	2	0	2
Jeremiah Burke	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0
Darik Dissette	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0
Joshua Streit	Forward	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Darius Burford	Guard	36	9-16	0-2	10-12	2	1	3	0	28
Myles Foster	Forward	26	6-10	0-1	4-5	6	3	0	0	16
Dalton Banks	Guard	36	4-9	0-1	2-5	4	5	0	1	10
Jordan Davis	Guard	22	3-4	1-1	0-0	8	1	2	0	7
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	24	2-4	1-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	5
Brandon Lieb	F	13	2-8	0-1	1-2	4	1	0	3	5
Kendall Lewis	Forward	14	1-1	0-0	2-4	2	0	0	0	4
Luke Kasubke	Guard	22	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	1	2	1	0
Johnny Kinziger	G	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.3Possessions70.3

92.5Offensive Efficiency106.7

106.7Defensive Efficiency92.5

-14.2Net Efficiency14.2

48.3%Effective FG%51.9%

50.6%True Shooting %55.7%

19.7%Turnover Rate13.0%

22.4%Free Throw Rate51.9%

20.7%3-Point Rate16.7%

0.79Assist / Turnover1.33

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 70.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.