Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

27.6%Arkansas State

72.4%Belmont

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBelmont -7.5

PROJECTED TOTAL162.8

MODEL MONEYLINEBelmont -262

Belmont

26-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 78

Projected Total162.8

Projected ScoreBelmont 85

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricBelmont

57.7MMH Power Index61.8

113.1Offensive Efficiency118.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.7

7.8Net Efficiency14.9

-1.0Strength of Schedule-0.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency10.0

73.3Tempo70.7

52.7%Effective FG%60.7%

19.4%Turnover Rate17.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %28.8%

39.6%Free Throw Rate32.7%

5.8Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Belmont HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY72.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBelmont holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.8–57.7), offensive efficiency (118.6–113.1), defensive efficiency (103.7–105.3), net efficiency (14.9–7.8).

Arkansas State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (15.2–10.0), offensive rebounding (38.1–28.8), free throw rate (39.6–32.7).

Final

Arkansas State

70—74

Belmont

Belmont by 4 • 70.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATBelmont

26-65FG28-58

40.0%FG%48.0%

12-393PT4-18

31.0%3PT%22.0%

6-9FT14-20

67.0%FT%70.0%

44Rebounds31

14Offensive Rebounds4

17Assists12

15Turnovers8

7Steals12

6Blocks2

20Fouls14

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	35	6-11	4-8	2-2	8	3	0	2	18
Derrian Ford	G	32	4-12	3-9	0-0	4	0	1	0	11
Izaiyah Nelson	F	21	4-5	0-1	2-4	9	0	1	2	10
Julian Lual	Guard	24	4-9	1-5	0-0	5	5	1	0	9
Caleb Fields	Guard	32	2-11	0-4	2-3	1	5	1	0	6
Avery Felts	Guard	10	2-6	2-6	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
LaQuill Hardnett	Forward	9	2-3	1-1	0-0	5	0	0	0	5
Zane Butler	Guard	12	1-3	1-3	0-0	2	3	1	0	3
Lado Laku	Forward	10	1-1	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	1	2
Taryn Todd	Guard	11	0-3	0-2	0-0	1	1	1	1	0
Freddy Hicks	G	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Belmont

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ja'Kobi Gillespie	G	36	7-12	2-4	2-2	6	5	4	0	18
Malik Dia	F	22	7-15	0-3	4-6	10	0	0	0	18
Cade Tyson	G	36	5-12	0-4	1-3	4	0	2	1	11
Isaiah Walker	G	34	4-8	1-4	2-4	3	2	5	0	11
Brigham Rogers	F	18	4-6	0-1	1-1	0	2	0	1	9
Jayce Willingham	Guard	25	1-4	1-2	2-2	2	0	0	0	5
Keishawn Davidson	Guard	21	0-1	0-0	2-2	3	3	1	0	2
Kyler Vanderjagt	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Win Miller	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.9Possessions70.9

98.7Offensive Efficiency104.4

104.4Defensive Efficiency98.7

-5.6Net Efficiency5.6

49.2%Effective FG%51.7%

50.5%True Shooting %54.8%

21.3%Turnover Rate11.2%

13.8%Free Throw Rate34.5%

60.0%3-Point Rate31.0%

1.13Assist / Turnover1.50

Game Summary

Belmont won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 70.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.