Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

6.3%Missouri State

93.7%Saint Mary's

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSaint Mary's -18.4

PROJECTED TOTAL146.1

MODEL MONEYLINESaint Mary's -1487

Saint Mary's

27-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 64

Projected Total146.1

Projected ScoreSaint Mary's 82

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricSaint Mary's

51.1MMH Power Index70.7

110.5Offensive Efficiency116.7

108.4Defensive Efficiency97.4

2.1Net Efficiency19.3

0.5Strength of Schedule3.0

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency18.6

67.9Tempo66.3

51.8%Effective FG%53.1%

16.4%Turnover Rate16.6%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

42.9%Free Throw Rate36.8%

1.4Average Margin12.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Saint Mary's HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY93.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSaint Mary's holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (70.7–51.1), offensive efficiency (116.7–110.5), defensive efficiency (97.4–108.4), net efficiency (19.3–2.1).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHball security (16.4–16.6), free throw rate (42.9–36.8).

Final

Missouri State

69—64

Saint Mary's

Missouri State by 5 • 62.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATSaint Mary's

24-54FG23-53

44.0%FG%43.0%

7-163PT7-20

44.0%3PT%35.0%

14-18FT11-13

78.0%FT%85.0%

30Rebounds32

8Offensive Rebounds9

14Assists19

8Turnovers12

5Steals5

3Blocks4

17Fouls20

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alston Mason	Guard	39	5-15	2-5	7-9	1	7	0	0	19
Donovan Clay	Guard	38	7-16	1-2	3-5	3	1	1	0	18
Chance Moore	G	39	5-10	2-6	4-4	3	0	0	1	16
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	22	4-4	0-0	0-0	1	1	2	0	8
Cesare Edwards	Center	20	1-4	1-1	0-0	4	1	1	0	3
Raphe Ayres	Guard	17	1-2	1-2	0-0	6	2	1	0	3
NJ Benson	F	20	1-3	0-0	0-0	4	2	0	2	2
Tyler Bey	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Saint Mary's

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Augustas Marciulionis	Guard	36	5-12	3-6	4-4	3	5	1	0	17
Aidan Mahaney	G	38	6-16	4-9	0-0	3	4	1	0	16
Mitchell Saxen	Center	36	4-8	0-0	2-3	10	4	1	0	10
Joshua Jefferson	F	31	3-7	0-1	3-3	7	3	2	0	9
Mason Forbes	Forward	8	2-3	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	2	5
Chris Howell	G	7	1-1	0-0	1-1	0	1	0	0	3
Luke Barrett	Forward	18	1-2	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Harry Wessels	C	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	2	2
Alex Ducas	Guard	16	0-2	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	0	0
Jordan Ross	G	6	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.4Possessions62.4

110.6Offensive Efficiency102.6

102.6Defensive Efficiency110.6

8.0Net Efficiency-8.0

50.9%Effective FG%50.0%

55.2%True Shooting %54.1%

12.8%Turnover Rate19.3%

33.3%Free Throw Rate24.5%

29.6%3-Point Rate37.7%

1.75Assist / Turnover1.58

Game Summary

Missouri State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 62.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.