American University

16-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

15.1%American University

84.9%UMBC

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUMBC -11.3

PROJECTED TOTAL142.6

MODEL MONEYLINEUMBC -562

UMBC

24-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAmerican University 66

Projected Total142.6

Projected ScoreUMBC 77

Team Comparison

American UniversityMetricUMBC

48.2MMH Power Index59.1

110.6Offensive Efficiency113.0

105.8Defensive Efficiency99.0

4.8Net Efficiency14.0

-4.3Strength of Schedule-5.6

2.2Last 10 Net Efficiency24.7

67.5Tempo65.5

52.6%Effective FG%54.3%

15.7%Turnover Rate14.3%

28.0%Offensive Rebound %25.2%

30.1%Free Throw Rate34.1%

3.3Average Margin9.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UMBC HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY84.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUMBC holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.1–48.2), offensive efficiency (113.0–110.6), defensive efficiency (99.0–105.8), net efficiency (14.0–4.8).

American University COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-4.3–-5.6), offensive rebounding (28.0–25.2).

Final

American University

87—85

UMBC

American University by 2 • 71.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

American UniversityTEAM STATUMBC

31-58FG30-65

53.0%FG%46.0%

15-313PT16-33

48.0%3PT%48.0%

10-16FT9-11

63.0%FT%82.0%

31Rebounds37

5Offensive Rebounds11

21Assists13

10Turnovers14

9Steals4

4Blocks2

15Fouls14

Player Box Score

American University

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jermaine Ballisager Webb	C	15	7-8	0-0	3-6	3	1	0	0	17
Elijah Stephens	Guard	32	6-12	1-5	3-4	2	5	4	0	16
Geoff Sprouse	G	20	4-6	4-6	2-2	2	2	0	0	14
Matt Rogers	Forward	25	5-9	2-3	1-2	7	3	2	1	13
Matt Mayock	F	25	4-10	3-8	0-0	1	2	1	1	11
Lorenzo Donadio	Guard	27	2-5	2-2	1-2	4	3	1	0	7
Colin Smalls	Guard	18	2-4	2-4	0-0	1	0	1	0	6
Lincoln Ball	Guard	31	1-2	1-2	0-0	5	3	0	2	3
Greg Jones	F	7	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	2	0	0	0

UMBC

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Bryce Johnson	Guard	34	11-16	6-9	3-4	4	1	0	0	31
Dion Brown	G	27	3-8	2-5	1-2	8	2	2	0	9
Marcus Banks Jr.	G	23	3-8	3-7	0-0	3	3	1	0	9
Max Lorca-Lloyd	Center	26	3-7	0-0	2-2	8	0	0	2	8
Marlon Short	Guard	19	3-5	1-1	1-1	4	0	0	0	8
Ace Valentine	G	10	3-4	2-3	0-0	0	3	0	0	8
Franck Emmou	G	16	2-7	2-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	6
Khydarius Smith	Center	7	1-2	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	4
Regimantas Ciunys	F	5	1-3	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Ashton Reese	Guard	25	0-3	0-2	0-0	0	2	1	0	0
Devan Sapp	Guard	8	0-2	0-2	0-0	4	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.9Possessions71.9

121.0Offensive Efficiency118.2

118.2Defensive Efficiency121.0

2.8Net Efficiency-2.8

66.4%Effective FG%58.5%

66.3%True Shooting %60.5%

14.2%Turnover Rate19.1%

27.6%Free Throw Rate16.9%

53.4%3-Point Rate50.8%

2.10Assist / Turnover0.93

Game Summary

American University won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 71.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.