Virginia

30-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

61.6%Virginia

38.4%NC State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -2.0

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -160

NC State

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreVirginia 80

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreNC State 78

Team Comparison

VirginiaMetricNC State

68.9MMH Power Index60.1

119.0Offensive Efficiency118.4

101.8Defensive Efficiency108.6

17.2Net Efficiency9.8

5.2Strength of Schedule6.4

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-11.9

67.6Tempo70.2

55.0%Effective FG%55.1%

16.0%Turnover Rate13.1%

37.4%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

33.2%Free Throw Rate35.7%

11.6Average Margin6.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY61.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–60.1), offensive efficiency (119.0–118.4), defensive efficiency (101.8–108.6), net efficiency (17.2–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.4–5.2), shooting efficiency (55.1–55.0), ball security (13.1–16.0).

Final

Virginia

60—76

NC State

NC State by 16 • 63.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

VirginiaTEAM STATNC State

23-53FG28-57

43.0%FG%49.0%

5-153PT10-28

33.0%3PT%36.0%

9-13FT10-12

69.0%FT%83.0%

31Rebounds32

5Offensive Rebounds5

14Assists14

8Turnovers6

6Steals6

2Blocks2

11Fouls9

Player Box Score

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaac McKneely	G	32	6-13	4-7	2-2	3	0	2	0	18
Ryan Dunn	Forward	32	7-9	1-2	1-3	7	1	1	1	16
Reece Beekman	Guard	33	4-7	0-0	4-4	2	10	1	0	12
Jordan Minor	Forward	7	2-2	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	0	6
Blake Buchanan	F	23	2-3	0-0	0-2	5	0	1	0	4
Andrew Rohde	G	31	1-6	0-3	0-0	3	2	0	0	2
Jacob Groves	Forward	12	1-6	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Taine Murray	Guard	18	0-2	0-0	0-0	4	1	1	0	0
Elijah Gertrude	G	8	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Leon Bond III	G	4	0-3	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jayden Taylor	Guard	32	4-9	2-5	5-5	1	0	0	1	15
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	24	5-8	3-5	2-2	4	0	1	0	15
DJ Horne	Guard	31	5-11	2-7	2-2	6	3	2	0	14
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	18	4-4	0-0	0-0	7	0	0	1	8
MJ Rice	Guard	10	3-4	1-2	0-0	4	0	1	0	7
Michael O'Connell	Guard	27	2-5	1-2	1-2	3	5	0	0	6
DJ Burns	Forward	22	3-6	0-0	0-1	2	4	1	0	6
Casey Morsell	Guard	33	2-9	1-7	0-0	2	2	1	0	5
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.0Possessions63.0

95.2Offensive Efficiency120.6

120.6Defensive Efficiency95.2

-25.4Net Efficiency25.4

48.1%Effective FG%57.9%

50.7%True Shooting %60.6%

12.9%Turnover Rate9.4%

24.5%Free Throw Rate21.1%

28.3%3-Point Rate49.1%

1.75Assist / Turnover2.33

Game Summary

NC State won by 16 points. The game played at approximately 63.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.