Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.7%Illinois State

79.3%Belmont

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBelmont -9.2

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINEBelmont -383

Belmont

26-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 71

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScoreBelmont 81

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricBelmont

54.3MMH Power Index61.8

110.6Offensive Efficiency118.6

101.4Defensive Efficiency103.7

9.2Net Efficiency14.9

1.0Strength of Schedule-0.2

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency10.0

67.5Tempo70.7

54.3%Effective FG%60.7%

16.8%Turnover Rate17.8%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %28.8%

32.0%Free Throw Rate32.7%

6.2Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Belmont HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBelmont holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.8–54.3), offensive efficiency (118.6–110.6), net efficiency (14.9–9.2), recent form (10.0–-4.4).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.4–103.7), strength of schedule (1.0–-0.2), ball security (16.8–17.8).

Final

Illinois State

60—67

Belmont

Belmont by 7 • 73.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATBelmont

20-54FG24-51

37.0%FG%47.0%

5-233PT5-15

22.0%3PT%33.0%

15-21FT14-21

71.0%FT%67.0%

36Rebounds31

8Offensive Rebounds3

11Assists13

17Turnovers15

6Steals5

4Blocks3

19Fouls18

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jordan Davis	Guard	33	5-12	4-10	4-5	9	0	3	0	18
Kendall Lewis	Forward	19	5-9	0-0	3-4	3	1	0	0	13
Myles Foster	Forward	35	3-8	0-0	6-10	9	1	2	2	12
Dalton Banks	Guard	37	3-7	1-3	0-0	7	3	0	1	7
Ty Pence	G	18	2-3	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	4
Chase Walker	F	6	1-3	0-0	2-2	2	1	0	0	4
Luke Kasubke	Guard	16	1-6	0-4	0-0	2	1	0	1	2
Johnny Kinziger	G	22	0-3	0-3	0-0	2	2	1	0	0
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	14	0-3	0-2	0-0	0	2	0	0	0

Belmont

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Malik Dia	F	27	6-11	1-2	4-7	6	0	0	1	17
Cade Tyson	G	28	4-7	2-3	6-6	3	2	1	0	16
Jayce Willingham	Guard	27	4-7	1-3	0-3	4	0	2	0	9
Isaiah Walker	G	37	4-10	0-2	0-0	5	2	1	0	8
Keishawn Davidson	Guard	38	3-8	1-2	0-0	6	7	0	0	7
Kyler Vanderjagt	G	17	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	2	0	0	4
Brigham Rogers	F	14	1-3	0-0	1-1	2	0	0	1	3
Win Miller	G	9	0-2	0-2	3-4	2	0	1	1	3
Jake Dykstra	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

73.0Possessions73.0

82.2Offensive Efficiency91.8

91.8Defensive Efficiency82.2

-9.6Net Efficiency9.6

41.7%Effective FG%52.0%

46.9%True Shooting %54.9%

23.3%Turnover Rate20.6%

38.9%Free Throw Rate41.2%

42.6%3-Point Rate29.4%

0.65Assist / Turnover0.87

Game Summary

Belmont won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 73.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.