Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.3%Texas State

80.7%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.8

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -418

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 73

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricArkansas State

49.4MMH Power Index57.7

107.7Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.4Defensive Efficiency105.3

4.3Net Efficiency7.8

-4.7Strength of Schedule-1.0

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

68.6Tempo73.3

51.3%Effective FG%52.7%

18.4%Turnover Rate19.4%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

36.0%Free Throw Rate39.6%

2.9Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–107.7), net efficiency (7.8–4.3), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–105.3), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Texas State

82—85

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 3 • 67.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATArkansas State

31-60FG28-48

52.0%FG%58.0%

8-183PT8-18

44.0%3PT%44.0%

12-16FT21-31

75.0%FT%68.0%

33Rebounds25

11Offensive Rebounds5

12Assists20

12Turnovers8

6Steals10

1Blocks4

23Fouls18

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Brandon Love	Forward	25	9-12	0-0	1-3	6	1	1	0	19
Dylan Dawson	Guard	31	5-10	4-7	2-2	3	2	0	0	16
Coleton Benson	G	16	4-5	4-5	3-3	1	2	1	0	15
Dontae Horne	G	18	3-5	0-0	3-3	2	1	0	0	9
Jordan Mason	G	32	3-9	0-3	1-1	4	1	0	0	7
Kaden Gumbs	G	21	2-7	0-2	1-2	1	3	1	0	5
Davion Sykes	G	21	2-4	0-0	1-2	7	1	1	0	5
Christian Turner	Forward	18	2-4	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	1	4
Chris Nix	Forward	15	1-4	0-0	0-0	3	1	1	0	2
Elijah Tate	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Caleb Fields	Guard	37	9-17	1-5	16-20	2	10	6	0	35
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	37	6-6	3-3	1-2	3	2	0	0	16
Izaiyah Nelson	F	29	5-7	0-1	2-5	11	2	0	4	12
Derrian Ford	G	29	4-6	3-5	0-0	3	1	1	0	11
Taryn Todd	Guard	27	2-8	0-2	1-2	5	4	1	0	5
Avery Felts	Guard	27	1-3	1-2	0-1	1	0	1	0	3
LaQuill Hardnett	Forward	6	1-1	0-0	1-1	0	0	1	0	3
Lado Laku	Forward	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Julian Lual	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.2Possessions67.2

122.0Offensive Efficiency126.5

126.5Defensive Efficiency122.0

-4.5Net Efficiency4.5

58.3%Effective FG%66.7%

60.7%True Shooting %67.8%

17.5%Turnover Rate12.2%

26.7%Free Throw Rate64.6%

30.0%3-Point Rate37.5%

1.00Assist / Turnover2.50

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 67.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.