NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

21.6%NC State

78.4%Louisville

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADLouisville -9.5

PROJECTED TOTAL162.1

MODEL MONEYLINELouisville -363

Louisville

24-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 76

Projected Total162.1

Projected ScoreLouisville 86

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricLouisville

60.1MMH Power Index67.1

118.4Offensive Efficiency118.6

108.6Defensive Efficiency102.2

9.8Net Efficiency16.4

6.4Strength of Schedule6.0

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency1.4

70.2Tempo71.0

55.1%Effective FG%56.9%

13.1%Turnover Rate16.8%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

35.7%Free Throw Rate34.1%

6.9Average Margin11.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Louisville HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY78.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMLouisville holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (67.1–60.1), offensive efficiency (118.6–118.4), defensive efficiency (102.2–108.6), net efficiency (16.4–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.4–6.0), ball security (13.1–16.8), free throw rate (35.7–34.1).

Final

NC State

89—83

Louisville

NC State by 6 • 73.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATLouisville

32-59FG28-59

54.0%FG%47.0%

10-203PT8-15

50.0%3PT%53.0%

15-17FT19-25

88.0%FT%76.0%

33Rebounds30

8Offensive Rebounds9

17Assists11

15Turnovers10

9Steals6

3Blocks2

24Fouls15

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Horne	Guard	35	9-14	6-9	3-3	1	3	2	0	27
Casey Morsell	Guard	29	5-10	0-2	3-3	2	1	1	0	13
DJ Burns	Forward	23	6-10	0-0	1-2	3	5	0	0	13
Michael O'Connell	Guard	31	4-7	3-3	0-0	2	6	2	1	11
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	21	2-3	1-1	3-3	5	0	1	1	8
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	19	3-6	0-1	1-2	11	1	1	1	7
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	16	2-3	0-0	2-2	4	0	1	0	6
Jayden Taylor	Guard	14	1-3	0-2	2-2	2	0	0	0	4
Kam Woods	G	10	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	1	1	0	0
MJ Rice	Guard	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Louisville

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mike James	G	38	6-12	1-2	7-10	5	1	0	0	20
Curtis Williams Jr.	G	26	5-7	4-6	1-2	5	2	0	0	15
Ty-Laur Johnson	G	22	4-9	0-1	6-6	1	5	2	0	14
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield	Forward	36	6-12	0-0	1-3	10	1	0	1	13
Skyy Clark	G	36	3-10	2-3	2-2	1	2	2	1	10
Tre White	G	20	3-6	1-2	0-0	4	0	0	0	7
Kaleb Glenn	F	16	1-2	0-0	2-2	3	0	1	0	4
Danilo Jovanovich	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Hercy Miller	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

73.0Possessions73.0

121.9Offensive Efficiency113.7

113.7Defensive Efficiency121.9

8.2Net Efficiency-8.2

62.7%Effective FG%54.2%

66.3%True Shooting %58.6%

20.2%Turnover Rate13.9%

28.8%Free Throw Rate42.4%

33.9%3-Point Rate25.4%

1.13Assist / Turnover1.10

Game Summary

NC State won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 73.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.