Ball State

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

7.9%Ball State

92.1%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -15.6

PROJECTED TOTAL148.4

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -1166

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBall State 66

Projected Total148.4

Projected ScoreToledo 82

Team Comparison

Ball StateMetricToledo

41.3MMH Power Index58.8

101.7Offensive Efficiency116.0

104.7Defensive Efficiency109.6

-3.0Net Efficiency6.4

-3.9Strength of Schedule2.3

-0.9Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

66.4Tempo69.8

48.3%Effective FG%55.1%

16.0%Turnover Rate14.6%

26.5%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

33.0%Free Throw Rate30.3%

-2.0Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY92.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–41.3), offensive efficiency (116.0–101.7), net efficiency (6.4–-3.0), strength of schedule (2.3–-3.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–109.6), free throw rate (33.0–30.3).

Final

Ball State

72—77

Toledo

Toledo by 5 • 61.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Ball StateTEAM STATToledo

27-53FG27-61

51.0%FG%44.0%

8-253PT7-18

32.0%3PT%39.0%

10-11FT16-22

91.0%FT%73.0%

29Rebounds34

7Offensive Rebounds15

10Assists12

10Turnovers5

3Steals7

6Blocks—

18Fouls13

Player Box Score

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jalin Anderson	Point Guard	38	10-15	2-5	3-3	6	5	3	0	25
Basheer Jihad	Forward	37	5-11	2-3	1-2	5	1	0	5	13
Davion Bailey	G	36	5-14	3-11	0-0	2	0	0	0	13
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	38	2-6	0-3	4-4	7	2	0	0	8
Ben Hendriks	Center	19	3-3	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	1	8
Trent Middleton Jr.	G	7	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	3
Mason Jones	F	25	1-3	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	0	2

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Ra'Heim Moss	Guard	33	9-15	3-5	3-5	2	1	1	24
Dante Maddox Jr.	Guard	36	7-17	3-7	4-4	7	5	2	21
Javan Simmons	F	28	4-8	0-0	4-4	4	0	0	12
Tyler Cochran	G	33	3-9	1-2	2-4	6	0	0	9
Sonny Wilson	G	35	3-7	0-0	1-2	6	3	2	7
Sam Lewis	G	12	1-1	0-0	2-3	1	3	0	4
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	12	0-4	0-4	0-0	0	0	1	0
Ben Wight	Forward	11	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.4Possessions61.4

117.3Offensive Efficiency125.4

125.4Defensive Efficiency117.3

-8.1Net Efficiency8.1

58.5%Effective FG%50.0%

61.8%True Shooting %53.9%

16.3%Turnover Rate8.1%

20.8%Free Throw Rate36.1%

47.2%3-Point Rate29.5%

1.00Assist / Turnover2.40

Game Summary

Toledo won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 61.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.