Valparaiso

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.9%Valparaiso

73.1%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -8.4

PROJECTED TOTAL143.6

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -272

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreValparaiso 68

Projected Total143.6

Projected ScoreIllinois State 76

Team Comparison

ValparaisoMetricIllinois State

49.9MMH Power Index54.3

106.6Offensive Efficiency110.6

105.8Defensive Efficiency101.4

0.8Net Efficiency9.2

0.3Strength of Schedule1.0

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

67.5Tempo67.5

48.7%Effective FG%54.3%

15.6%Turnover Rate16.8%

32.4%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

40.0%Free Throw Rate32.0%

0.5Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–49.9), offensive efficiency (110.6–106.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–105.8), net efficiency (9.2–0.8).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-0.1–-4.4), ball security (15.6–16.8), offensive rebounding (32.4–28.3).

Final

Valparaiso

59—50

Illinois State

Valparaiso by 9 • 62.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

ValparaisoTEAM STATIllinois State

22-51FG19-59

43.0%FG%32.0%

4-123PT1-18

33.0%3PT%6.0%

11-13FT11-20

85.0%FT%55.0%

37Rebounds39

5Offensive Rebounds13

12Assists13

11Turnovers7

—Steals7

2Blocks1

16Fouls17

Player Box Score

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	BLK	PTS
Cooper Schwieger	F	37	5-7	0-1	6-6	13	1	0	16
Isaiah Stafford	G	28	4-14	3-8	0-0	5	0	0	11
Darius DeAveiro	Guard	35	3-12	0-0	3-4	4	8	0	9
Jahari Williamson	G	17	3-5	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	7
Kaspar Sepp	F	34	2-5	0-1	2-3	6	2	1	6
Jaxon Edwards	G	25	3-4	0-0	0-0	4	1	1	6
Sherman Weatherspoon IV	G	16	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	2
Ola Ajiboye	F	7	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	2
Jerome Palm	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Darius Burford	Guard	26	4-10	0-2	1-2	2	2	0	0	9
Myles Foster	Forward	20	4-9	0-1	1-2	4	0	1	0	9
Kendall Lewis	Forward	21	2-7	0-1	4-4	8	1	1	0	8
Luke Kasubke	Guard	26	1-5	1-4	3-3	1	0	0	1	6
Johnny Kinziger	G	19	3-6	0-1	0-0	3	1	1	0	6
Dalton Banks	Guard	27	1-6	0-3	2-2	4	6	0	0	4
Ty Pence	G	9	2-3	0-1	0-3	2	1	0	0	4
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	8	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Chase Walker	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-2	0	0	0	0	2
Jordan Davis	Guard	26	0-7	0-3	0-2	8	2	4	0	0
Harouna Sissoko	Forward	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Nik Stadelman	Guard	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Schmitt	Forward	3	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.9Possessions62.9

93.8Offensive Efficiency79.5

79.5Defensive Efficiency93.8

14.3Net Efficiency-14.3

47.1%Effective FG%33.1%

51.6%True Shooting %36.5%

17.4%Turnover Rate11.2%

25.5%Free Throw Rate33.9%

23.5%3-Point Rate30.5%

1.09Assist / Turnover1.86

Game Summary

Valparaiso won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 62.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.