Houston Christian

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

33.0%Houston Christian

67.0%Northwestern State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthwestern State -5.6

PROJECTED TOTAL136.2

MODEL MONEYLINENorthwestern State -203

Northwestern State

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreHouston Christian 65

Projected Total136.2

Projected ScoreNorthwestern State 71

Team Comparison

Houston ChristianMetricNorthwestern State

39.5MMH Power Index41.3

102.5Offensive Efficiency104.0

110.3Defensive Efficiency109.0

-7.8Net Efficiency-5.0

-0.6Strength of Schedule-1.6

-8.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.9

65.4Tempo63.6

49.9%Effective FG%49.5%

19.0%Turnover Rate17.6%

30.5%Offensive Rebound %27.1%

37.1%Free Throw Rate41.2%

-5.1Average Margin-3.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northwestern State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY67.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthwestern State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (41.3–39.5), offensive efficiency (104.0–102.5), defensive efficiency (109.0–110.3), net efficiency (-5.0–-7.8).

Houston Christian COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-0.6–-1.6), shooting efficiency (49.9–49.5), offensive rebounding (30.5–27.1).

Final

Houston Christian

64—69

Northwestern State

Northwestern State by 5 • 76.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Houston ChristianTEAM STATNorthwestern State

22-55FG27-62

40.0%FG%44.0%

5-153PT5-18

33.0%3PT%28.0%

15-23FT10-16

65.0%FT%63.0%

39Rebounds39

11Offensive Rebounds11

10Assists12

21Turnovers18

14Steals10

3Blocks2

15Fouls19

Player Box Score

Houston Christian

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jay Alvarez	Forward	34	10-16	0-2	8-10	5	1	4	0	28
Dominic Capriotti	G	24	4-7	4-6	4-4	4	0	2	0	16
Bonke Maring	Center	36	2-9	0-0	2-2	8	2	4	0	6
Michael Imariagbe	F	26	3-7	0-0	0-4	10	1	1	2	6
Pierce Bazil	PG	29	2-4	1-2	0-0	2	2	0	0	5
Porter Bazil	SF	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	2
Marcus Greene	G	35	0-9	0-5	1-2	2	4	2	0	1
Chigozie Achara	Forward	4	0-0	0-0	0-1	2	0	1	0	0
Nate Hudson	Forward	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Northwestern State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Braelon Bush	G	33	4-8	2-4	5-6	2	2	1	0	15
Justin Wilson	Forward	20	5-6	0-0	1-2	7	0	0	0	11
Chase Forte	G	36	4-11	0-2	1-3	3	5	3	0	9
Cliff Davis	G	34	4-10	1-5	0-0	3	4	2	0	9
Chris Mubiru	G	12	4-6	1-3	0-0	4	0	2	0	9
Duane Posey	G	28	3-9	0-0	0-1	10	0	2	0	6
J.C. Riley Jr.	F	8	2-3	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	4
Jimel Lane	F	19	0-5	0-2	3-4	6	0	0	1	3
Jae Slack	F	10	1-4	1-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	3

Advanced Game Stats

76.3Possessions76.3

83.9Offensive Efficiency90.4

90.4Defensive Efficiency83.9

-6.6Net Efficiency6.6

44.5%Effective FG%47.6%

48.5%True Shooting %49.6%

27.7%Turnover Rate23.5%

41.8%Free Throw Rate25.8%

27.3%3-Point Rate29.0%

0.48Assist / Turnover0.67

Game Summary

Northwestern State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 76.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.