Buffalo

17-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

17.9%Buffalo

82.1%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -10.1

PROJECTED TOTAL159.3

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -459

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBuffalo 75

Projected Total159.3

Projected ScoreToledo 85

Team Comparison

BuffaloMetricToledo

49.7MMH Power Index58.8

114.9Offensive Efficiency116.0

112.2Defensive Efficiency109.6

2.7Net Efficiency6.4

0.0Strength of Schedule2.3

-5.9Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

67.9Tempo69.8

56.1%Effective FG%55.1%

16.1%Turnover Rate14.6%

27.6%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

40.4%Free Throw Rate30.3%

1.8Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY82.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–49.7), offensive efficiency (116.0–114.9), defensive efficiency (109.6–112.2), net efficiency (6.4–2.7).

Buffalo COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (56.1–55.1), free throw rate (40.4–30.3).

Final

Buffalo

66—77

Toledo

Toledo by 11 • 71.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

BuffaloTEAM STATToledo

27-62FG29-64

44.0%FG%45.0%

6-253PT6-16

24.0%3PT%38.0%

6-11FT13-17

55.0%FT%76.0%

35Rebounds40

9Offensive Rebounds11

13Assists15

13Turnovers11

5Steals5

5Blocks2

17Fouls11

Player Box Score

Buffalo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Adams	Guard	38	9-14	3-7	3-4	5	0	1	1	24
Sy Chatman	Forward	33	7-18	0-5	2-5	6	4	0	1	16
Anquan Boldin Jr.	G	32	3-6	2-2	1-1	5	0	0	0	9
Jonnivius Smith	Forward	32	4-7	0-2	0-0	10	3	2	1	8
Shawn Fulcher	Guard	21	3-6	0-1	0-1	1	2	1	0	6
Lloyd McVeigh	Guard	6	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Ryan Sabol	G	23	0-5	0-4	0-0	2	3	1	0	0
James Graham III	G	15	0-5	0-3	0-0	2	1	0	2	0

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dante Maddox Jr.	Guard	37	6-13	4-5	5-5	4	2	0	1	21
Javan Simmons	F	36	10-13	0-0	0-0	6	2	0	1	20
Ra'Heim Moss	Guard	33	5-18	1-4	7-8	8	7	1	0	18
Tyler Cochran	G	32	5-10	1-3	0-0	11	1	2	0	11
Sam Lewis	G	9	2-3	0-0	1-4	3	1	0	0	5
Sonny Wilson	G	34	1-5	0-2	0-0	2	2	2	0	2
Andre Lorentsson	Forward	14	0-2	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	0
Ben Wight	Forward	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Bryce Ford	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.7Possessions71.7

92.1Offensive Efficiency107.4

107.4Defensive Efficiency92.1

-15.3Net Efficiency15.3

48.4%Effective FG%50.0%

49.1%True Shooting %53.4%

18.3%Turnover Rate15.3%

17.7%Free Throw Rate26.6%

40.3%3-Point Rate25.0%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.36

Game Summary

Toledo won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 71.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.