Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

58.9%Arkansas State

41.1%Southern Miss

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -1.7

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -143

Southern Miss

19-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricSouthern Miss

57.7MMH Power Index49.9

113.1Offensive Efficiency106.1

105.3Defensive Efficiency104.9

7.8Net Efficiency1.2

-1.0Strength of Schedule-0.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency3.8

73.3Tempo70.4

52.7%Effective FG%49.9%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate43.9%

5.8Average Margin0.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.9), offensive efficiency (113.1–106.1), net efficiency (7.8–1.2), recent form (15.2–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–105.3), strength of schedule (-0.2–-1.0), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

66—69

Southern Miss

Southern Miss by 3 • 71.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATSouthern Miss

21-61FG23-65

34.0%FG%35.0%

14-343PT7-23

41.0%3PT%30.0%

10-17FT16-21

59.0%FT%76.0%

41Rebounds50

7Offensive Rebounds12

15Assists8

10Turnovers8

3Steals6

5Blocks9

16Fouls13

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Caleb Fields	Guard	38	5-7	3-4	3-8	5	9	1	0	16
Taryn Todd	Guard	26	3-8	2-6	5-6	5	1	0	1	13
Derrian Ford	G	35	4-11	3-7	0-0	3	1	1	0	11
Avery Felts	Guard	26	3-5	3-5	0-0	1	1	0	0	9
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	34	3-15	2-9	0-0	12	3	0	0	8
Izaiyah Nelson	F	19	2-7	0-0	2-3	8	0	1	3	6
Julian Lual	Guard	10	1-4	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
Lado Laku	Forward	6	0-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
LaQuill Hardnett	Forward	4	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Zane Butler	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Austin Crowley	Guard	39	7-21	2-5	9-11	5	3	1	1	25
Donovan Ivory	Guard	38	5-14	2-5	3-3	8	2	1	0	15
Victor Iwuakor	Forward	31	3-5	1-1	3-4	10	0	1	6	10
Mo Arnold	Guard	35	3-10	2-5	0-0	11	2	1	0	8
Cobie Montgomery	Guard	31	3-11	0-7	0-0	7	1	1	0	6
Bryson Hall	Forward	19	2-3	0-0	1-3	3	0	1	2	5
Jeffery Armstrong	Guard	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.6Possessions71.6

92.2Offensive Efficiency96.4

96.4Defensive Efficiency92.2

-4.2Net Efficiency4.2

45.9%Effective FG%40.8%

47.8%True Shooting %46.0%

13.9%Turnover Rate11.3%

27.9%Free Throw Rate32.3%

55.7%3-Point Rate35.4%

1.50Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Southern Miss won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 71.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.