Minnesota

15-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

6.5%Minnesota

93.5%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -17.9

PROJECTED TOTAL142.6

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -1438

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMinnesota 62

Projected Total142.6

Projected ScoreMichigan State 80

Team Comparison

MinnesotaMetricMichigan State

50.5MMH Power Index69.8

109.1Offensive Efficiency117.0

107.7Defensive Efficiency101.5

1.4Net Efficiency15.5

3.2Strength of Schedule7.2

-6.6Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

63.6Tempo67.3

54.1%Effective FG%54.1%

16.5%Turnover Rate17.2%

26.5%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

36.9%Free Throw Rate36.6%

0.9Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY93.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–50.5), offensive efficiency (117.0–109.1), defensive efficiency (101.5–107.7), net efficiency (15.5–1.4).

Minnesota COUNTERS WITHball security (16.5–17.2), free throw rate (36.9–36.6).

Final

Minnesota

66—76

Michigan State

Michigan State by 10 • 69.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

MinnesotaTEAM STATMichigan State

21-49FG29-65

43.0%FG%45.0%

7-203PT3-12

35.0%3PT%25.0%

17-26FT15-23

65.0%FT%65.0%

38Rebounds35

10Offensive Rebounds12

13Assists20

19Turnovers5

3Steals9

1Blocks1

24Fouls17

Player Box Score

Minnesota

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dawson Garcia	Forward	38	6-17	1-3	9-12	9	1	0	0	22
Mike Mitchell Jr.	Guard	40	5-12	3-9	1-3	4	5	0	0	14
Cam Christie	Guard	16	3-5	2-4	0-0	1	2	1	0	8
Braeden Carrington	G	26	2-3	1-2	2-2	0	2	2	1	7
Pharrel Payne	F	25	2-7	0-0	3-4	10	2	0	0	7
Joshua Ola-Joseph	F	22	1-2	0-1	2-2	5	0	0	0	4
Parker Fox	Forward	15	1-1	0-0	0-1	4	1	0	0	2
Jack Wilson	Center	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Isaiah Ihnen	F	16	0-1	0-1	0-2	2	0	0	0	0

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyson Walker	Guard	33	7-13	1-2	6-7	3	2	3	0	21
Malik Hall	Forward	32	6-12	1-2	3-4	12	4	0	0	16
Jaden Akins	Guard	29	5-14	0-5	0-1	2	2	1	0	10
AJ Hoggard	Guard	32	4-10	0-1	0-0	4	7	2	0	8
Tre Holloman	G	22	3-7	1-2	1-1	1	2	1	0	8
Carson Cooper	C	17	2-5	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	6
Mady Sissoko	Center	22	1-2	0-0	3-8	5	2	0	1	5
Coen Carr	F	9	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	2
Jaxon Kohler	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Xavier Booker	C	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.7Possessions69.7

94.7Offensive Efficiency109.0

109.0Defensive Efficiency94.7

-14.3Net Efficiency14.3

50.0%Effective FG%46.9%

53.8%True Shooting %50.0%

27.0%Turnover Rate7.3%

53.1%Free Throw Rate35.4%

40.8%3-Point Rate18.5%

0.68Assist / Turnover4.00

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 69.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.