Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

46.2%Illinois State

53.8%Missouri State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMissouri State -0.6

PROJECTED TOTAL146.9

MODEL MONEYLINEMissouri State -116

Missouri State

16-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 73

Projected Total146.9

Projected ScoreMissouri State 74

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricMissouri State

54.3MMH Power Index51.1

110.6Offensive Efficiency110.5

101.4Defensive Efficiency108.4

9.2Net Efficiency2.1

1.0Strength of Schedule0.5

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.1

67.5Tempo67.9

54.3%Effective FG%51.8%

16.8%Turnover Rate16.4%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %33.0%

32.0%Free Throw Rate42.9%

6.2Average Margin1.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY53.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–51.1), offensive efficiency (110.6–110.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–108.4), net efficiency (9.2–2.1).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-2.1–-4.4), ball security (16.4–16.8), offensive rebounding (33.0–28.3).

Final

Illinois State

69—60

Missouri State

Illinois State by 9 • 67.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATMissouri State

22-51FG19-56

43.0%FG%34.0%

7-193PT6-26

37.0%3PT%23.0%

18-27FT16-19

67.0%FT%84.0%

34Rebounds40

7Offensive Rebounds12

12Assists7

10Turnovers15

6Steals4

2Blocks8

20Fouls23

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Darius Burford	Guard	36	8-15	1-3	5-8	2	1	3	0	22
Luke Kasubke	Guard	20	4-9	3-6	1-1	3	0	0	0	12
Myles Foster	Forward	33	4-9	0-0	3-7	9	4	0	1	11
Jordan Davis	Guard	25	2-4	2-3	0-0	3	1	0	0	6
Chase Walker	F	10	1-2	0-0	4-6	5	0	0	0	6
Johnny Kinziger	G	27	2-6	1-4	0-0	5	1	1	0	5
Dalton Banks	Guard	23	0-4	0-3	4-4	1	5	2	1	4
Kendall Lewis	Forward	10	1-2	0-0	1-1	3	0	0	0	3
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	9	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Ty Pence	G	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Donovan Clay	Guard	35	4-8	0-3	11-13	4	1	0	5	19
Alston Mason	Guard	37	5-21	3-14	5-6	1	2	1	0	18
NJ Benson	F	23	4-6	0-0	0-0	10	0	2	1	8
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	33	2-4	1-2	0-0	5	1	1	0	5
Cesare Edwards	Center	27	2-10	0-3	0-0	9	1	0	2	4
Raphe Ayres	Guard	18	1-1	1-1	0-0	4	2	0	0	3
Nick Kramer	Guard	12	1-3	1-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
Matthew Lee	Guard	10	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Dawson Carper	Forward	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.4Possessions67.4

102.4Offensive Efficiency89.0

89.0Defensive Efficiency102.4

13.4Net Efficiency-13.4

50.0%Effective FG%39.3%

54.1%True Shooting %46.1%

15.0%Turnover Rate22.1%

52.9%Free Throw Rate33.9%

37.3%3-Point Rate46.4%

1.20Assist / Turnover0.47

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 67.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.