Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

60.2%Arkansas State

39.8%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -1.6

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -151

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 78

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreTexas State 77

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricTexas State

57.7MMH Power Index49.4

113.1Offensive Efficiency107.7

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.4

7.8Net Efficiency4.3

-1.0Strength of Schedule-4.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

73.3Tempo68.6

52.7%Effective FG%51.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.0%

5.8Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–107.7), net efficiency (7.8–4.3), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–105.3), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

79—72

Texas State

Arkansas State by 7 • 68.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATTexas State

27-65FG24-53

42.0%FG%45.0%

11-313PT3-9

35.0%3PT%33.0%

14-20FT21-24

70.0%FT%88.0%

32Rebounds38

13Offensive Rebounds10

14Assists10

8Turnovers13

11Steals4

4Blocks4

19Fouls17

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Avery Felts	Guard	23	5-8	5-7	2-2	2	1	2	0	17
Julian Lual	Guard	27	5-13	3-9	0-0	4	2	2	0	13
Taryn Todd	Guard	20	5-9	0-3	3-4	2	3	0	0	13
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	33	5-14	1-7	1-2	9	2	4	1	12
Derrian Ford	G	30	3-8	2-4	1-2	2	3	0	0	9
Caleb Fields	Guard	33	2-9	0-1	4-5	4	3	1	0	8
Freddy Hicks	G	21	2-3	0-0	3-5	5	0	1	0	7
Izaiyah Nelson	F	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	3	0
Zane Butler	Guard	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Noah McDavid	Guard	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jordan Mason	G	33	7-17	0-2	7-8	2	2	1	1	21
Kaden Gumbs	G	35	3-9	2-2	4-4	7	2	2	0	12
Brandon Love	Forward	28	4-6	0-0	2-2	3	2	0	1	10
Dylan Dawson	Guard	25	2-6	1-2	2-2	2	1	1	1	7
Chris Nix	Forward	9	3-4	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	6
Christian Turner	Forward	21	1-1	0-0	2-2	3	2	0	0	4
Davion Sykes	G	18	1-4	0-1	2-2	3	0	0	1	4
Joshua O'Garro	G	3	2-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	4
Coleton Benson	G	21	0-3	0-2	2-4	3	1	0	0	2
Dontae Horne	G	7	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

68.5Possessions68.5

115.3Offensive Efficiency105.1

105.1Defensive Efficiency115.3

10.2Net Efficiency-10.2

50.0%Effective FG%48.1%

53.0%True Shooting %55.9%

11.5%Turnover Rate19.3%

30.8%Free Throw Rate45.3%

47.7%3-Point Rate17.0%

1.75Assist / Turnover0.77

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 68.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.