Belmont

26-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

58.1%Belmont

41.9%Illinois State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBelmont -1.0

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINEBelmont -139

Illinois State

23-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBelmont 77

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScoreIllinois State 76

Team Comparison

BelmontMetricIllinois State

61.8MMH Power Index54.3

118.6Offensive Efficiency110.6

103.7Defensive Efficiency101.4

14.9Net Efficiency9.2

-0.2Strength of Schedule1.0

10.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.4

70.7Tempo67.5

60.7%Effective FG%54.3%

17.8%Turnover Rate16.8%

28.8%Offensive Rebound %28.3%

32.7%Free Throw Rate32.0%

10.5Average Margin6.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Belmont HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBelmont holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.8–54.3), offensive efficiency (118.6–110.6), net efficiency (14.9–9.2), recent form (10.0–-4.4).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.4–103.7), strength of schedule (1.0–-0.2), ball security (16.8–17.8).

Final

Belmont

67—77

Illinois State

Illinois State by 10 • 65.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

BelmontTEAM STATIllinois State

22-54FG26-57

41.0%FG%46.0%

6-243PT8-22

25.0%3PT%36.0%

17-21FT17-23

81.0%FT%74.0%

36Rebounds35

8Offensive Rebounds9

16Assists18

10Turnovers6

3Steals6

6Blocks1

20Fouls20

Player Box Score

Belmont

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Malik Dia	F	27	8-16	0-3	3-4	7	0	0	2	19
Cade Tyson	G	39	4-8	2-3	4-5	9	1	0	0	14
Jayce Willingham	Guard	38	3-8	1-5	7-8	7	5	1	0	14
Keishawn Davidson	Guard	33	5-13	2-7	0-0	3	3	2	0	12
Win Miller	G	10	2-4	1-3	0-0	2	3	0	0	5
Brigham Rogers	F	14	0-1	0-0	2-2	0	2	0	4	2
Isaiah Walker	G	32	0-4	0-3	1-2	3	2	0	0	1
Kyler Vanderjagt	G	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Myles Foster	Forward	29	6-12	0-2	7-8	10	5	2	0	19
Darius Burford	Guard	35	6-14	1-3	0-0	1	4	2	0	13
Johnny Kinziger	G	32	4-5	0-0	5-6	7	3	0	0	13
Jordan Davis	Guard	27	4-9	2-7	1-2	3	0	1	1	11
Dalton Banks	Guard	21	3-4	3-3	2-4	2	1	0	0	11
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	18	2-3	1-2	2-2	1	3	0	0	7
Luke Kasubke	Guard	19	1-6	1-5	0-0	3	0	1	0	3
Kendall Lewis	Forward	17	0-3	0-0	0-1	4	2	0	0	0
Chase Walker	F	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.5Possessions65.5

102.3Offensive Efficiency117.6

117.6Defensive Efficiency102.3

-15.3Net Efficiency15.3

46.3%Effective FG%52.6%

52.4%True Shooting %56.7%

15.2%Turnover Rate9.2%

38.9%Free Throw Rate40.4%

44.4%3-Point Rate38.6%

1.60Assist / Turnover3.00

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 65.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.