NC State

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

18.4%NC State

81.6%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -10.2

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -443

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNC State 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreVirginia 84

Team Comparison

NC StateMetricVirginia

60.1MMH Power Index68.9

118.4Offensive Efficiency119.0

108.6Defensive Efficiency101.8

9.8Net Efficiency17.2

6.4Strength of Schedule5.2

-11.9Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

70.2Tempo67.6

55.1%Effective FG%55.0%

13.1%Turnover Rate16.0%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

35.7%Free Throw Rate33.2%

6.9Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY81.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–60.1), offensive efficiency (119.0–118.4), defensive efficiency (101.8–108.6), net efficiency (17.2–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.4–5.2), shooting efficiency (55.1–55.0), ball security (13.1–16.0).

Final

NC State

53—59

Virginia

Virginia by 6 • 67.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NC StateTEAM STATVirginia

22-63FG24-65

35.0%FG%37.0%

4-143PT4-17

29.0%3PT%24.0%

5-6FT7-13

83.0%FT%54.0%

32Rebounds54

7Offensive Rebounds20

7Assists13

9Turnovers15

10Steals4

7Blocks9

16Fouls8

Player Box Score

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Casey Morsell	Guard	32	5-14	1-3	2-2	2	2	3	1	13
DJ Burns	Forward	27	5-12	0-0	1-2	3	1	2	2	11
Michael O'Connell	Guard	28	4-6	0-1	2-2	4	1	1	1	10
DJ Horne	Guard	30	3-12	3-7	0-0	2	2	1	1	9
Jayden Taylor	Guard	40	2-6	0-1	0-0	4	1	0	2	4
Mohamed Diarra	Forward	20	2-4	0-0	0-0	8	0	1	0	4
Ben Middlebrooks	Forward	18	1-4	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Dennis Parker Jr.	G	19	0-2	0-1	0-0	4	0	1	0	0
Kam Woods	G	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Breon Pass	Guard	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
LJ Thomas	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ryan Dunn	Forward	35	6-10	0-1	1-2	12	1	0	6	13
Reece Beekman	Guard	40	4-12	0-1	3-5	4	6	3	1	11
Taine Murray	Guard	19	3-4	2-2	3-4	2	1	0	0	11
Isaac McKneely	G	42	4-16	2-9	0-0	2	2	0	0	10
Jordan Minor	Forward	30	5-9	0-0	0-2	9	0	1	1	10
Blake Buchanan	F	14	2-5	0-0	0-0	8	0	0	1	4
Dante Harris	G	20	0-5	0-1	0-0	3	2	0	0	0
Andrew Rohde	G	12	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jacob Groves	Forward	10	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Leon Bond III	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.1Possessions67.1

79.0Offensive Efficiency87.9

87.9Defensive Efficiency79.0

-8.9Net Efficiency8.9

38.1%Effective FG%40.0%

40.2%True Shooting %41.4%

13.3%Turnover Rate22.7%

9.5%Free Throw Rate20.0%

22.2%3-Point Rate26.2%

0.78Assist / Turnover0.87

Game Summary

Virginia won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 67.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.