Northern Illinois

9-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

13.5%Northern Illinois

86.5%Ball State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBall State -12.4

PROJECTED TOTAL142.2

MODEL MONEYLINEBall State -641

Ball State

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 65

Projected Total142.2

Projected ScoreBall State 77

Team Comparison

Northern IllinoisMetricBall State

29.2MMH Power Index41.3

99.7Offensive Efficiency101.7

111.6Defensive Efficiency104.7

-11.9Net Efficiency-3.0

-2.1Strength of Schedule-3.9

-28.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.9

69.7Tempo66.4

48.5%Effective FG%48.3%

21.3%Turnover Rate16.0%

31.7%Offensive Rebound %26.5%

39.6%Free Throw Rate33.0%

-8.3Average Margin-2.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Ball State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY86.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBall State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (41.3–29.2), offensive efficiency (101.7–99.7), defensive efficiency (104.7–111.6), net efficiency (-3.0–-11.9).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-2.1–-3.9), shooting efficiency (48.5–48.3), offensive rebounding (31.7–26.5).

Final

Northern Illinois

71—81

Ball State

Ball State by 10 • 70.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern IllinoisTEAM STATBall State

29-66FG25-53

44.0%FG%47.0%

4-183PT8-17

22.0%3PT%47.0%

9-13FT23-26

69.0%FT%88.0%

29Rebounds40

7Offensive Rebounds8

6Assists16

6Turnovers13

4Steals4

6Blocks5

22Fouls15

Player Box Score

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
David Coit	G	40	9-20	3-10	4-4	3	3	2	0	25
Zarique Nutter	F	40	9-21	1-3	1-2	4	0	1	0	20
Xavier Amos	F	37	6-11	0-3	1-2	8	0	0	3	13
Zion Russell	G	28	2-3	0-0	1-2	1	3	1	0	5
Harvin Ibarguen	Forward	17	1-4	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	0	2
Oluwasegun Durosinmi	Forward	13	1-1	0-0	0-1	4	0	0	0	2
Will Lovings-Watts	Guard	13	0-3	0-2	2-2	0	0	0	1	2
Yanic Konan Niederhauser	Forward	10	1-3	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	2	2
Ethan Butler	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Steven Tipton	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Basheer Jihad	Forward	36	9-18	2-4	8-10	14	3	1	2	28
Davion Bailey	G	31	5-10	3-6	0-0	4	1	2	0	13
Jalin Anderson	Point Guard	38	3-7	0-1	5-6	7	6	1	0	11
Mason Jones	F	34	4-8	0-0	2-2	4	0	0	2	10
Trent Middleton Jr.	G	17	3-4	2-2	2-2	1	2	0	0	10
Mickey Pearson Jr.	Forward	39	1-5	1-3	6-6	6	4	0	1	9
Jurica Zagorsak	Guard	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.8Possessions70.8

100.3Offensive Efficiency114.4

114.4Defensive Efficiency100.3

-14.1Net Efficiency14.1

47.0%Effective FG%54.7%

49.2%True Shooting %62.0%

8.4%Turnover Rate18.5%

19.7%Free Throw Rate49.1%

27.3%3-Point Rate32.1%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.23

Game Summary

Ball State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 70.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.