Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

40.7%Missouri State

59.3%Valparaiso

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADValparaiso -3.3

PROJECTED TOTAL147.0

MODEL MONEYLINEValparaiso -146

Valparaiso

18-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 72

Projected Total147.0

Projected ScoreValparaiso 75

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricValparaiso

51.1MMH Power Index49.9

110.5Offensive Efficiency106.6

108.4Defensive Efficiency105.8

2.1Net Efficiency0.8

0.5Strength of Schedule0.3

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

67.9Tempo67.5

51.8%Effective FG%48.7%

16.4%Turnover Rate15.6%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %32.4%

42.9%Free Throw Rate40.0%

1.4Average Margin0.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Missouri State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMissouri State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.1–49.9), offensive efficiency (110.5–106.6), net efficiency (2.1–0.8), strength of schedule (0.5–0.3).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.8–108.4), recent form (-0.1–-2.1), ball security (15.6–16.4).

Final

Missouri State

81—70

Valparaiso

Missouri State by 11 • 72.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATValparaiso

33-71FG22-62

46.0%FG%35.0%

7-153PT10-25

47.0%3PT%40.0%

8-12FT16-18

67.0%FT%89.0%

48Rebounds33

13Offensive Rebounds6

18Assists13

9Turnovers7

2Steals4

7Blocks8

16Fouls12

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alston Mason	Guard	40	9-17	4-7	0-0	6	9	1	0	22
Donovan Clay	Guard	33	7-14	2-3	2-2	6	2	0	2	18
Cesare Edwards	Center	24	5-12	1-1	5-6	11	1	0	3	16
NJ Benson	F	23	5-7	0-0	1-4	9	1	0	1	11
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	32	5-8	0-1	0-0	7	3	0	1	10
Matthew Lee	Guard	23	1-3	0-0	0-0	3	2	0	0	2
Chance Moore	G	17	1-9	0-2	0-0	4	0	1	0	2
Nick Kramer	Guard	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Darius DeAveiro	Guard	37	6-13	4-6	4-4	4	7	2	0	20
Jahari Williamson	G	35	4-14	2-5	9-10	5	1	0	0	19
Cooper Schwieger	F	33	4-11	2-6	0-0	7	0	0	2	10
Jaxon Edwards	G	28	2-8	0-3	2-2	3	2	0	3	6
Sherman Weatherspoon IV	G	26	2-7	2-4	0-0	3	0	0	0	6
Kaspar Sepp	F	17	2-6	0-1	1-2	2	1	0	0	5
Ola Ajiboye	F	18	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	2	2	3	4
Anthony Sciarroni	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Connor Barrett	Guard	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jerome Palm	F	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.2Possessions72.2

112.2Offensive Efficiency97.0

97.0Defensive Efficiency112.2

15.2Net Efficiency-15.2

51.4%Effective FG%43.5%

52.8%True Shooting %49.6%

12.4%Turnover Rate9.8%

16.9%Free Throw Rate29.0%

21.1%3-Point Rate40.3%

2.00Assist / Turnover1.86

Game Summary

Missouri State won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 72.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.