Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

39.4%Illinois State

60.6%Murray State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMurray State -2.7

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINEMurray State -154

Murray State

20-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 77

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreMurray State 79

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricMurray State

54.3MMH Power Index53.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency115.0

101.4Defensive Efficiency111.0

9.2Net Efficiency4.0

1.0Strength of Schedule3.5

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.5

67.5Tempo72.3

54.3%Effective FG%54.0%

16.8%Turnover Rate16.3%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %32.7%

32.0%Free Throw Rate39.1%

6.2Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–53.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–111.0), net efficiency (9.2–4.0), recent form (-4.4–-9.5).

Murray State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (115.0–110.6), strength of schedule (3.5–1.0), ball security (16.3–16.8).

Final

Illinois State

61—59

Murray State

Illinois State by 2 • 56.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATMurray State

21-47FG22-51

45.0%FG%43.0%

5-173PT7-20

29.0%3PT%35.0%

14-16FT8-11

88.0%FT%73.0%

38Rebounds21

13Offensive Rebounds6

10Assists10

14Turnovers8

5Steals5

1Blocks4

12Fouls14

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	11	5-5	0-0	2-2	4	0	0	0	12
Darius Burford	Guard	33	4-9	0-1	3-4	2	2	0	0	11
Kendall Lewis	Forward	26	3-5	1-1	4-4	8	2	1	0	11
Myles Foster	Forward	28	5-8	0-0	0-0	12	1	0	0	10
Johnny Kinziger	G	24	1-6	1-4	2-2	2	1	1	0	5
Luke Kasubke	Guard	21	1-3	1-3	2-2	2	1	0	0	5
Dalton Banks	Guard	29	1-6	1-3	1-2	1	2	3	0	4
Jordan Davis	Guard	21	1-4	1-4	0-0	3	1	0	1	3
Malachi Poindexter	Guard	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Ty Pence	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	0

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Quincy Anderson	Guard	35	7-12	2-5	0-1	4	1	1	0	16
JaCobi Wood	Guard	40	4-9	1-2	4-4	4	4	2	0	13
Nick Ellington	F	31	6-7	0-0	1-2	5	0	0	0	13
Justin Morgan	Guard	28	3-6	3-6	0-0	3	2	0	1	9
Rob Perry	Guard	34	2-12	1-4	2-2	3	1	2	2	7
Alden Applewhite	F	14	0-3	0-2	1-2	0	1	0	0	1
Brian Moore Jr.	G	11	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Shawn Walker Jr.	Guard	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Samuel Murray	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

56.9Possessions56.9

107.2Offensive Efficiency103.7

103.7Defensive Efficiency107.2

3.5Net Efficiency-3.5

50.0%Effective FG%50.0%

55.9%True Shooting %52.5%

25.2%Turnover Rate13.7%

34.0%Free Throw Rate21.6%

36.2%3-Point Rate39.2%

0.71Assist / Turnover1.25

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 56.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.