American University

16-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

61.0%American University

39.0%Lafayette

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAmerican University -2.9

PROJECTED TOTAL145.8

MODEL MONEYLINEAmerican University -156

Lafayette

11-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAmerican University 74

Projected Total145.8

Projected ScoreLafayette 71

Team Comparison

American UniversityMetricLafayette

48.2MMH Power Index39.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency102.9

105.8Defensive Efficiency110.3

4.8Net Efficiency-7.4

-4.3Strength of Schedule-1.4

2.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.4

67.5Tempo67.5

52.6%Effective FG%49.4%

15.7%Turnover Rate15.4%

28.0%Offensive Rebound %25.7%

30.1%Free Throw Rate33.0%

3.3Average Margin-5.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

American University HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY61.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAmerican University holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.2–39.6), offensive efficiency (110.6–102.9), defensive efficiency (105.8–110.3), net efficiency (4.8–-7.4).

Lafayette COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.4–-4.3), ball security (15.4–15.7), free throw rate (33.0–30.1).

Final

American University

69—66

Lafayette

American University by 3 • 61.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

American UniversityTEAM STATLafayette

24-50FG25-53

48.0%FG%47.0%

11-313PT9-23

35.0%3PT%39.0%

10-17FT7-12

59.0%FT%58.0%

29Rebounds31

6Offensive Rebounds7

17Assists19

9Turnovers10

5Steals4

1Blocks—

16Fouls17

Player Box Score

American University

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Matt Rogers	Forward	34	9-19	3-10	2-4	8	1	0	1	23
Elijah Stephens	Guard	36	5-8	2-4	7-8	1	5	0	0	19
Matt Mayock	F	32	3-10	3-8	0-0	2	3	3	0	9
Lorenzo Donadio	Guard	31	4-8	1-5	0-1	6	3	0	0	9
Greg Jones	F	20	1-1	1-1	1-2	3	0	0	0	4
Lincoln Ball	Guard	34	1-1	1-1	0-2	7	4	2	0	3
Colin Smalls	Guard	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Noah Jones	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Geoff Sprouse	G	5	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Lafayette

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Devin Hines	G	36	6-9	2-4	3-4	4	2	0	17
Kyle Jenkins	Forward	28	6-9	1-1	2-2	7	3	2	15
Eric Sondberg	Guard	30	4-10	4-9	0-0	2	2	0	12
Justin Vander Baan	C	22	3-8	0-0	0-0	2	3	0	6
Ryan Pettit	G	11	2-4	1-3	1-1	0	1	1	6
Luka Savicevic	G	19	1-6	1-4	0-0	3	4	1	3
Joshua Wyche	F	17	1-3	0-2	1-4	8	0	0	3
Mark Butler	G	21	1-2	0-0	0-1	2	4	0	2
Chris Rubayo	F	12	1-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	2
Luke Rasmussen	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

61.4Possessions61.4

112.4Offensive Efficiency107.5

107.5Defensive Efficiency112.4

4.9Net Efficiency-4.9

59.0%Effective FG%55.7%

59.4%True Shooting %56.2%

14.7%Turnover Rate16.2%

34.0%Free Throw Rate22.6%

62.0%3-Point Rate43.4%

1.89Assist / Turnover1.90

Game Summary

American University won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 61.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.