Missouri State

16-18

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.9%Missouri State

71.1%Southern Illinois

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSouthern Illinois -7.0

PROJECTED TOTAL146.7

MODEL MONEYLINESouthern Illinois -246

Southern Illinois

16-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMissouri State 70

Projected Total146.7

Projected ScoreSouthern Illinois 77

Team Comparison

Missouri StateMetricSouthern Illinois

51.1MMH Power Index54.6

110.5Offensive Efficiency103.4

108.4Defensive Efficiency98.5

2.1Net Efficiency4.9

0.5Strength of Schedule1.6

-2.1Last 10 Net Efficiency7.7

67.9Tempo70.6

51.8%Effective FG%49.5%

16.4%Turnover Rate17.0%

33.0%Offensive Rebound %31.1%

42.9%Free Throw Rate32.3%

1.4Average Margin3.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Southern Illinois HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSouthern Illinois holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.6–51.1), defensive efficiency (98.5–108.4), net efficiency (4.9–2.1), strength of schedule (1.6–0.5).

Missouri State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (110.5–103.4), shooting efficiency (51.8–49.5), ball security (16.4–17.0).

Final

Missouri State

76—75

Southern Illinois

Missouri State by 1 • 70.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Missouri StateTEAM STATSouthern Illinois

31-66FG23-54

47.0%FG%43.0%

4-183PT13-27

22.0%3PT%48.0%

10-13FT16-20

77.0%FT%80.0%

32Rebounds37

9Offensive Rebounds9

10Assists13

7Turnovers16

10Steals5

5Blocks3

15Fouls14

Player Box Score

Missouri State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Donovan Clay	Guard	41	12-17	0-2	0-2	7	1	2	0	24
Alston Mason	Guard	43	4-19	1-9	4-4	2	4	2	0	13
Chance Moore	G	28	5-6	2-2	1-2	4	1	2	1	13
Damien Mayo Jr.	G	38	5-8	1-1	1-1	4	1	2	1	12
Cesare Edwards	Center	30	4-11	0-3	4-4	9	0	2	2	12
NJ Benson	F	15	1-3	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	1	2
Matthew Lee	Guard	17	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	3	0	0	0
Nick Kramer	Guard	13	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Southern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Xavier Johnson	Guard	43	9-21	5-9	5-6	5	6	0	0	28
Trent Brown	Guard	45	6-13	5-11	2-2	5	1	1	0	19
Troy D'Amico	Forward	44	4-8	3-5	4-6	6	1	0	1	15
Clarence Rupert	Forward	32	3-4	0-0	2-2	8	0	3	1	8
Scottie Ebube	C	12	1-2	0-0	2-2	6	1	0	0	4
AJ Ferguson	Guard	33	0-5	0-2	1-2	4	1	0	1	1
Kennard Davis Jr.	G	13	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	2	1	0	0
Trey Miller	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jarrett Hensley	Forward	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.4Possessions70.4

108.0Offensive Efficiency106.5

106.5Defensive Efficiency108.0

1.4Net Efficiency-1.4

50.0%Effective FG%54.6%

52.6%True Shooting %59.1%

10.0%Turnover Rate22.7%

19.7%Free Throw Rate37.0%

27.3%3-Point Rate50.0%

1.43Assist / Turnover0.81

Game Summary

Missouri State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 70.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.