Southern Miss

19-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.1%Southern Miss

79.9%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.9

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -398

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreArkansas State 84

Team Comparison

Southern MissMetricArkansas State

49.9MMH Power Index57.7

106.1Offensive Efficiency113.1

104.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

1.2Net Efficiency7.8

-0.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

3.8Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.4Tempo73.3

49.9%Effective FG%52.7%

18.4%Turnover Rate19.4%

32.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

43.9%Free Throw Rate39.6%

0.9Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.9), offensive efficiency (113.1–106.1), net efficiency (7.8–1.2), recent form (15.2–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–105.3), strength of schedule (-0.2–-1.0), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Southern Miss

71—78

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 7 • 65.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Southern MissTEAM STATArkansas State

21-59FG29-62

36.0%FG%47.0%

5-143PT7-18

36.0%3PT%39.0%

24-29FT13-20

83.0%FT%65.0%

32Rebounds43

11Offensive Rebounds15

8Assists11

4Turnovers9

7Steals1

5Blocks7

18Fouls20

Player Box Score

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Donovan Ivory	Guard	40	4-13	3-6	6-7	5	0	1	1	17
Austin Crowley	Guard	35	7-16	0-2	3-4	2	3	4	1	17
Victor Iwuakor	Forward	28	5-11	0-0	7-10	12	1	1	3	17
Mo Arnold	Guard	35	5-13	2-3	2-2	2	3	1	0	14
Cobie Montgomery	Guard	30	0-5	0-2	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Bryson Hall	Forward	9	0-0	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	0	2
Tegra Izay	C	6	0-0	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Jeffery Armstrong	Guard	17	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Caleb Fields	Guard	36	12-18	0-0	3-7	2	8	1	0	27
Derrian Ford	G	35	4-10	2-4	3-4	10	3	0	0	13
Izaiyah Nelson	F	19	4-11	0-1	3-4	12	0	0	3	11
Avery Felts	Guard	32	2-5	2-5	1-1	2	0	0	1	7
Julian Lual	Guard	17	2-5	2-4	1-2	3	0	0	1	7
LaQuill Hardnett	Forward	13	2-3	0-0	0-0	6	0	0	2	4
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	12	1-2	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	0	4
Zane Butler	Guard	17	1-4	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
Lado Laku	Forward	6	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Taryn Todd	Guard	13	0-3	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.7Possessions65.7

108.1Offensive Efficiency118.7

118.7Defensive Efficiency108.1

-10.7Net Efficiency10.7

39.8%Effective FG%52.4%

48.8%True Shooting %54.5%

6.1%Turnover Rate13.7%

49.2%Free Throw Rate32.3%

23.7%3-Point Rate29.0%

2.00Assist / Turnover1.22

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 65.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.