South Alabama

21-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

42.9%South Alabama

57.1%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -2.8

PROJECTED TOTAL145.3

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -133

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 71

Projected Total145.3

Projected ScoreTexas State 74

Team Comparison

South AlabamaMetricTexas State

51.4MMH Power Index49.4

110.3Offensive Efficiency107.7

103.9Defensive Efficiency103.4

6.4Net Efficiency4.3

-3.7Strength of Schedule-4.7

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

67.4Tempo68.6

53.2%Effective FG%51.3%

12.8%Turnover Rate18.4%

24.9%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

39.8%Free Throw Rate36.0%

4.3Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

South Alabama HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSouth Alabama holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.4–49.4), offensive efficiency (110.3–107.7), net efficiency (6.4–4.3), strength of schedule (-3.7–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–103.9), recent form (9.1–3.4), offensive rebounding (34.3–24.9).

Final

South Alabama

66—74

Texas State

Texas State by 8 • 70.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

South AlabamaTEAM STATTexas State

22-59FG26-52

37.0%FG%50.0%

8-263PT8-16

31.0%3PT%50.0%

14-18FT14-23

78.0%FT%61.0%

30Rebounds39

7Offensive Rebounds7

9Assists16

10Turnovers14

7Steals6

2Blocks5

20Fouls16

Player Box Score

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tyrell Jones	Guard	37	3-11	2-8	8-8	2	1	2	1	16
Marcus Millender	G	30	3-7	0-2	3-3	2	5	1	0	9
Julian Margrave	F	22	3-7	3-7	0-0	3	0	0	0	9
Judah Brown	Forward	29	3-10	2-6	0-0	4	0	1	0	8
Samuel Tabe	Guard	14	4-7	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	8
Thomas Howell	Forward	31	2-7	0-1	2-3	9	2	2	1	6
Isiah Gaiter	Guard	19	3-6	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	6
Elijah Ormiston	Forward	10	1-3	1-2	1-4	2	0	0	0	4
Marshall Kearing	Forward	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Davion Sykes	G	33	8-11	0-1	2-5	11	3	0	0	18
Dylan Dawson	Guard	31	4-8	4-6	2-4	3	3	2	1	14
Jordan Mason	G	30	3-11	2-3	3-4	4	2	1	0	11
Brandon Love	Forward	33	4-7	0-0	2-2	6	1	0	3	10
Coleton Benson	G	11	3-6	2-5	0-0	1	0	0	0	8
Christian Turner	Forward	26	3-5	0-0	1-2	5	1	2	0	7
Kaden Gumbs	G	34	1-4	0-1	4-6	6	6	1	0	6
Joshua O'Garro	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.3Possessions70.3

93.9Offensive Efficiency105.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency93.9

-11.4Net Efficiency11.4

44.1%Effective FG%57.7%

48.9%True Shooting %58.8%

14.2%Turnover Rate20.0%

30.5%Free Throw Rate44.2%

44.1%3-Point Rate30.8%

0.90Assist / Turnover1.14

Game Summary

Texas State won by 8 points. The game played at approximately 70.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.