Southern Miss

19-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

38.9%Southern Miss

61.1%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -4.2

PROJECTED TOTAL147.9

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -157

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 72

Projected Total147.9

Projected ScoreTexas State 76

Team Comparison

Southern MissMetricTexas State

49.9MMH Power Index49.4

106.1Offensive Efficiency107.7

104.9Defensive Efficiency103.4

1.2Net Efficiency4.3

-0.2Strength of Schedule-4.7

3.8Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

70.4Tempo68.6

49.9%Effective FG%51.3%

18.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

32.3%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

43.9%Free Throw Rate36.0%

0.9Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY61.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (107.7–106.1), defensive efficiency (103.4–104.9), net efficiency (4.3–1.2), recent form (9.1–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (49.9–49.4), strength of schedule (-0.2–-4.7), free throw rate (43.9–36.0).

Final

Southern Miss

55—60

Texas State

Texas State by 5 • 65.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Southern MissTEAM STATTexas State

16-49FG25-61

33.0%FG%41.0%

4-223PT1-7

18.0%3PT%14.0%

19-25FT9-15

76.0%FT%60.0%

32Rebounds43

8Offensive Rebounds16

6Assists7

13Turnovers13

11Steals11

4Blocks2

17Fouls17

Player Box Score

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Austin Crowley	Guard	39	5-15	2-6	4-6	5	2	4	0	16
Mo Arnold	Guard	35	5-8	0-1	4-6	1	1	2	0	14
Victor Iwuakor	Forward	28	2-5	0-1	7-9	7	0	3	1	11
Cobie Montgomery	Guard	29	2-10	2-9	4-4	5	0	0	1	10
Donovan Ivory	Guard	32	1-9	0-5	0-0	3	2	0	1	2
Tegra Izay	C	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	2
Bryson Hall	Forward	16	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jeffery Armstrong	Guard	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	1	2	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Brandon Love	Forward	34	7-13	0-0	1-6	14	1	0	0	15
Jordan Mason	G	28	5-14	0-1	4-4	2	0	4	0	14
Davion Sykes	G	35	6-12	0-0	0-0	8	0	1	2	12
Kaden Gumbs	G	22	2-5	0-0	4-4	5	2	4	0	8
Christian Turner	Forward	22	3-6	0-0	0-1	4	0	0	0	6
Coleton Benson	G	16	1-4	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
Dontae Horne	G	9	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Dylan Dawson	Guard	30	0-5	0-2	0-0	2	3	2	0	0
Joshua O'Garro	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.5Possessions65.5

84.0Offensive Efficiency91.6

91.6Defensive Efficiency84.0

-7.6Net Efficiency7.6

36.7%Effective FG%41.8%

45.2%True Shooting %44.0%

19.7%Turnover Rate20.0%

51.0%Free Throw Rate24.6%

44.9%3-Point Rate11.5%

0.46Assist / Turnover0.54

Game Summary

Texas State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 65.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.