Florida State

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.1%Florida State

80.9%Louisville

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADLouisville -11.8

PROJECTED TOTAL161.4

MODEL MONEYLINELouisville -424

Louisville

24-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreFlorida State 75

Projected Total161.4

Projected ScoreLouisville 87

Team Comparison

Florida StateMetricLouisville

58.7MMH Power Index67.1

111.9Offensive Efficiency118.6

108.5Defensive Efficiency102.2

3.4Net Efficiency16.4

5.7Strength of Schedule6.0

7.6Last 10 Net Efficiency1.4

71.8Tempo71.0

52.4%Effective FG%56.9%

15.2%Turnover Rate16.8%

30.3%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

35.2%Free Throw Rate34.1%

2.4Average Margin11.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Louisville HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMLouisville holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (67.1–58.7), offensive efficiency (118.6–111.9), defensive efficiency (102.2–108.5), net efficiency (16.4–3.4).

Florida State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (7.6–1.4), ball security (15.2–16.8), free throw rate (35.2–34.1).

Final

Florida State

92—101

Louisville

Louisville by 9 • 86.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Florida StateTEAM STATLouisville

33-64FG31-57

52.0%FG%54.0%

3-193PT3-11

16.0%3PT%27.0%

23-35FT36-45

66.0%FT%80.0%

34Rebounds33

12Offensive Rebounds9

7Assists13

18Turnovers16

11Steals8

6Blocks2

34Fouls23

Player Box Score

Florida State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jalen Warley	G	24	9-10	0-0	5-5	6	3	1	1	23
Primo Spears	Guard	24	6-12	1-4	4-6	2	1	2	0	17
Darin Green Jr.	Guard	35	6-11	2-5	0-0	1	0	4	0	14
Jamir Watkins	Guard	27	3-12	0-3	8-10	4	1	2	0	14
Cameron Corhen	F	19	5-5	0-0	4-7	6	0	1	0	14
Baba Miller	F	26	2-5	0-2	0-0	4	1	0	3	4
Josh Nickelberry	Guard	16	2-5	0-3	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Jaylan Gainey	Forward	9	0-0	0-0	1-2	3	1	0	2	1
Tom House	G	4	0-3	0-2	1-3	0	0	1	0	1
De'Ante Green	F	9	0-0	0-0	0-2	1	0	0	0	0
Taylor Bol Bowen	F	7	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Louisville

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield	Forward	35	11-15	1-1	6-8	7	0	2	1	29
Ty-Laur Johnson	G	38	9-15	0-1	9-10	6	11	2	1	27
Curtis Williams Jr.	G	31	5-13	2-6	7-7	3	0	2	0	19
Mike James	G	37	2-6	0-2	14-19	4	1	0	0	18
Kaleb Glenn	F	12	3-4	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	6
Emmanuel Okorafor	F	10	1-2	0-0	0-1	2	0	0	0	2
Tre White	G	31	0-2	0-1	0-0	7	1	2	0	0
Zan Payne	Guard	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

86.0Possessions86.0

107.0Offensive Efficiency117.4

117.4Defensive Efficiency107.0

-10.5Net Efficiency10.5

53.9%Effective FG%57.0%

57.1%True Shooting %64.4%

20.8%Turnover Rate18.7%

54.7%Free Throw Rate78.9%

29.7%3-Point Rate19.3%

0.39Assist / Turnover0.81

Game Summary

Louisville won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 86.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.