Saint Mary's

27-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.2%Saint Mary's

75.8%Gonzaga

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADGonzaga -9.1

PROJECTED TOTAL147.3

MODEL MONEYLINEGonzaga -313

Gonzaga

31-4

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSaint Mary's 69

Projected Total147.3

Projected ScoreGonzaga 78

Team Comparison

Saint Mary'sMetricGonzaga

70.7MMH Power Index76.4

116.7Offensive Efficiency119.7

97.4Defensive Efficiency94.0

19.3Net Efficiency25.7

3.0Strength of Schedule3.0

18.6Last 10 Net Efficiency18.2

66.3Tempo70.4

53.1%Effective FG%55.7%

16.6%Turnover Rate13.6%

37.4%Offensive Rebound %35.0%

36.8%Free Throw Rate31.5%

12.8Average Margin18.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Gonzaga HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMGonzaga holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (76.4–70.7), offensive efficiency (119.7–116.7), defensive efficiency (94.0–97.4), net efficiency (25.7–19.3).

Saint Mary's COUNTERS WITHrecent form (18.6–18.2), offensive rebounding (37.4–35.0), free throw rate (36.8–31.5).

Final

Saint Mary's

64—62

Gonzaga

Saint Mary's by 2 • 58.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Saint Mary'sTEAM STATGonzaga

25-55FG24-55

45.0%FG%44.0%

7-183PT3-14

39.0%3PT%21.0%

7-13FT11-15

54.0%FT%73.0%

30Rebounds36

8Offensive Rebounds10

11Assists5

5Turnovers7

4Steals4

1Blocks1

15Fouls15

Player Box Score

Saint Mary's

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Aidan Mahaney	G	34	7-17	4-10	2-2	0	1	1	0	20
Joshua Jefferson	F	40	7-14	1-3	1-1	11	4	0	0	16
Mitchell Saxen	Center	36	6-10	0-0	3-8	6	0	0	0	15
Augustas Marciulionis	Guard	38	4-9	2-3	1-2	3	4	2	0	11
Jordan Ross	G	8	1-3	0-1	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Alex Ducas	Guard	26	0-1	0-1	0-0	5	2	0	0	0
Luke Barrett	Forward	14	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Harry Wessels	C	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Gonzaga

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ryan Nembhard	Guard	40	7-13	1-2	3-5	1	1	1	0	18
Anton Watson	Forward	40	6-10	1-1	3-4	10	2	1	0	16
Graham Ike	F	35	4-10	0-1	4-4	12	0	1	0	12
Nolan Hickman	Guard	37	3-12	0-5	1-1	0	2	0	1	7
Ben Gregg	Forward	32	3-7	1-4	0-1	10	0	1	0	7
Braden Huff	F	5	1-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Dusty Stromer	G	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Luka Krajnovic	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

58.7Possessions58.7

109.0Offensive Efficiency105.6

105.6Defensive Efficiency109.0

3.4Net Efficiency-3.4

51.8%Effective FG%46.4%

52.3%True Shooting %49.9%

8.6%Turnover Rate11.8%

23.6%Free Throw Rate27.3%

32.7%3-Point Rate25.5%

2.20Assist / Turnover0.71

Game Summary

Saint Mary's won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 58.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.