James Madison

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.8%James Madison

75.2%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -8.7

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -303

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreJames Madison 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreArkansas State 83

Team Comparison

James MadisonMetricArkansas State

52.3MMH Power Index57.7

110.5Offensive Efficiency113.1

109.4Defensive Efficiency105.3

1.1Net Efficiency7.8

1.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

7.9Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

67.5Tempo73.3

53.3%Effective FG%52.7%

17.3%Turnover Rate19.4%

30.5%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

36.6%Free Throw Rate39.6%

0.7Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–52.3), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.5), defensive efficiency (105.3–109.4), net efficiency (7.8–1.1).

James Madison COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.2–-1.0), shooting efficiency (53.3–52.7), ball security (17.3–19.4).

Final

James Madison

77—73

Arkansas State

James Madison by 4 • 71.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

James MadisonTEAM STATArkansas State

30-66FG25-62

45.0%FG%40.0%

6-183PT9-30

33.0%3PT%30.0%

11-15FT14-19

73.0%FT%74.0%

40Rebounds38

12Offensive Rebounds12

17Assists14

9Turnovers13

10Steals4

2Blocks2

16Fouls15

Player Box Score

James Madison

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Noah Freidel	Guard	32	6-12	4-8	3-4	10	1	2	1	19
Terrence Edwards Jr.	Guard	28	4-12	0-2	6-6	1	3	1	0	14
Julien Wooden	Forward	27	4-6	1-2	0-1	2	1	0	0	9
Raekwon Horton	Forward	25	4-8	1-4	0-0	6	1	1	0	9
Jaylen Carey	F	26	4-8	0-1	0-0	7	3	2	0	8
T.J. Bickerstaff	Not Available	14	3-7	0-0	1-2	5	1	2	0	7
Michael Green III	Guard	15	3-7	0-0	0-0	2	2	0	0	6
Bryant Randleman	Guard	10	2-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Xavier Brown	G	23	0-4	0-1	1-2	4	5	2	1	1

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Taryn Todd	Guard	30	5-11	2-5	6-7	3	7	1	0	18
Caleb Fields	Guard	39	5-11	2-5	3-5	2	4	1	0	15
Derrian Ford	G	35	4-16	3-12	2-2	6	1	0	0	13
Dyondre Dominguez	Forward	26	4-8	2-6	0-0	5	2	0	1	10
Izaiyah Nelson	F	25	3-6	0-0	2-2	8	0	1	0	8
Freddy Hicks	G	17	3-7	0-0	1-3	11	0	1	0	7
Avery Felts	Guard	12	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Julian Lual	Guard	12	0-2	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	1	0
Zane Butler	Guard	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.1Possessions71.1

108.3Offensive Efficiency102.7

102.7Defensive Efficiency108.3

5.6Net Efficiency-5.6

50.0%Effective FG%47.6%

52.6%True Shooting %51.4%

12.8%Turnover Rate18.0%

22.7%Free Throw Rate30.6%

27.3%3-Point Rate48.4%

1.89Assist / Turnover1.08

Game Summary

James Madison won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 71.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.