App State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

50.6%App State

49.4%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -0.7

PROJECTED TOTAL141.3

MODEL MONEYLINEApp State -102

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreApp State 70

Projected Total141.3

Projected ScoreTexas State 71

Team Comparison

App StateMetricTexas State

54.2MMH Power Index49.4

110.9Offensive Efficiency107.7

101.7Defensive Efficiency103.4

9.2Net Efficiency4.3

-4.2Strength of Schedule-4.7

7.0Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

64.9Tempo68.6

51.1%Effective FG%51.3%

15.2%Turnover Rate18.4%

34.2%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

39.8%Free Throw Rate36.0%

6.0Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

App State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMApp State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.2–49.4), offensive efficiency (110.9–107.7), defensive efficiency (101.7–103.4), net efficiency (9.2–4.3).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHrecent form (9.1–7.0), shooting efficiency (51.3–51.1), offensive rebounding (34.3–34.2).

Final

App State

56—63

Texas State

Texas State by 7 • 65.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

App StateTEAM STATTexas State

21-51FG24-57

41.0%FG%42.0%

4-193PT4-9

21.0%3PT%44.0%

10-14FT11-15

71.0%FT%73.0%

32Rebounds34

5Offensive Rebounds7

11Assists12

12Turnovers10

7Steals9

8Blocks2

13Fouls16

Player Box Score

App State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Terence Harcum	Guard	33	3-13	2-9	5-6	3	2	3	0	13
Donovan Gregory	Forward	29	5-10	0-1	2-2	2	2	0	1	12
Myles Tate	Guard	25	4-8	1-4	2-3	7	5	0	0	11
Tre'Von Spillers	F	32	4-7	0-0	1-2	9	0	3	2	9
CJ Huntley	Forward	18	2-4	1-2	0-0	1	1	0	2	5
Justin Abson	F	30	2-2	0-0	0-1	8	1	0	3	4
Xavion Brown	Guard	19	1-4	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	2
Christopher Mantis	Forward	12	0-3	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jordan Marsh	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Davion Sykes	G	32	7-11	0-0	3-4	11	1	0	0	17
Jordan Mason	G	30	5-14	2-3	0-0	1	3	1	2	12
Christian Turner	Forward	24	4-6	0-0	3-6	5	2	2	0	11
Dylan Dawson	Guard	29	2-7	1-3	3-3	2	2	1	0	8
Kaden Gumbs	G	25	2-4	0-0	2-2	3	1	1	0	6
Brandon Love	Forward	27	2-8	0-0	0-0	5	1	0	0	4
Coleton Benson	G	23	1-4	1-3	0-0	2	1	2	0	3
Elijah Tate	Guard	6	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Joshua O'Garro	G	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	1	2	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.9Possessions65.9

85.0Offensive Efficiency95.6

95.6Defensive Efficiency85.0

-10.6Net Efficiency10.6

45.1%Effective FG%45.6%

48.6%True Shooting %49.1%

18.6%Turnover Rate14.9%

27.5%Free Throw Rate26.3%

37.3%3-Point Rate15.8%

0.92Assist / Turnover1.20

Game Summary

Texas State won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 65.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.