Montana State

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

37.3%Montana State

62.7%Northern Colorado

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthern Colorado -3.9

PROJECTED TOTAL157.2

MODEL MONEYLINENorthern Colorado -168

Northern Colorado

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMontana State 77

Projected Total157.2

Projected ScoreNorthern Colorado 81

Team Comparison

Montana StateMetricNorthern Colorado

53.6MMH Power Index53.7

114.4Offensive Efficiency116.0

104.9Defensive Efficiency107.6

9.5Net Efficiency8.4

-3.7Strength of Schedule-4.3

4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency10.8

68.1Tempo71.1

55.1%Effective FG%56.9%

14.7%Turnover Rate15.3%

28.1%Offensive Rebound %27.9%

30.7%Free Throw Rate27.8%

6.5Average Margin6.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Montana State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY62.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMontana State holds the advantage in defensive efficiency (104.9–107.6), net efficiency (9.5–8.4), strength of schedule (-3.7–-4.3), ball security (14.7–15.3).

Northern Colorado COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (53.7–53.6), offensive efficiency (116.0–114.4), recent form (10.8–4.9).

Final

Montana State

70—73

Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado by 3 • 70.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Montana StateTEAM STATNorthern Colorado

27-64FG28-59

42.0%FG%47.0%

10-213PT5-19

48.0%3PT%26.0%

6-7FT12-14

86.0%FT%86.0%

28Rebounds41

7Offensive Rebounds11

15Assists15

10Turnovers15

12Steals8

4Blocks8

16Fouls13

Player Box Score

Montana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Robert Ford III	Guard	38	10-17	4-9	0-0	6	3	2	0	24
Sam Lecholat	Forward	24	4-7	3-3	2-2	6	0	1	3	13
Brandon Walker	F	19	3-10	1-1	1-2	4	3	1	0	8
Chika Nduka	Forward	15	3-4	0-0	1-1	1	1	0	0	7
Eddie Turner III	Guard	31	3-8	0-1	0-0	6	4	5	0	6
Tyler Patterson	Guard	35	1-6	1-3	2-2	1	2	2	0	5
Brian Goracke	Forward	35	2-11	0-3	0-0	4	2	1	1	4
Jaden Geron	G	3	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3

Northern Colorado

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dejour Reaves	G	30	9-15	1-4	2-2	5	2	1	0	21
Jaron Rillie	Guard	33	4-8	2-2	2-2	6	4	2	0	12
Saint Thomas	Forward	32	4-10	0-2	4-4	7	5	2	4	12
Riley Abercrombie	Forward	24	4-10	1-6	2-2	3	0	1	0	11
Brock Wisne	F	21	5-8	0-0	1-2	7	2	0	2	11
Zach Bloch	G	26	1-5	1-4	0-0	3	2	2	0	3
Theo Hughes	Center	19	1-2	0-0	1-2	8	0	0	2	3
Langston Reynolds	G	12	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Connor Creech	Guard	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.0Possessions70.0

100.0Offensive Efficiency104.3

104.3Defensive Efficiency100.0

-4.3Net Efficiency4.3

50.0%Effective FG%51.7%

52.0%True Shooting %55.6%

14.2%Turnover Rate21.5%

10.9%Free Throw Rate23.7%

32.8%3-Point Rate32.2%

1.50Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Northern Colorado won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 70.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.